Keep in mind now ICUs are never empty before this. A really quite ICU in a medium sized hospital may have a few open beds at any one time. People in ICU with standard pneumonia, COPD exacerbation, MIs, strokes, trauma, sepsis, renal failure...they are still there...they don’t just unplug them to die when COVID shows up. You don’t need a huge number of cases hitting at one time to overwhelm a small hospital. So the mortality rate and “crisis” fear factor gets amplified.
I would say simply - do not underestimate the severity of this- I work in healthcare and have been speaking (first person) with a lot of medical colleagues over the last 96 hours. In most places the **** IS going to hit the fan - we all have to do what we can to help Keep you and your family safe and follow all guidelines rigorously - fwiw- my family is now self isolated -we will have no social contact at all it will be very testing but I feel it needs to be done keep well everybody Bob
We know the Icu system of northern Italy was overwhelmed. 16% of those presenting to the hospital were admitted to ICU. In Lombardy there were approx 600 Icu beds with 30% availability. Currently there are over 600 COVID 19 positive pts in the ICU of Lombardy alone. Others have been moved when possible. This crisis will devastate Italy for years. We will see how the US fares. Seattle and NYC next up. Beyond lives, the economic impact will take a decade to erase. Stay safe. Scotts
Italy (us) was only the first: other EU Nations are one or two week "behind" us and USA are three weeks behind us. Spain, Swiss, Germany, France and so on are in the same conditions we were 7-10 days ago. Impact will be (more or less) the same in every place of the world. Swiss has (in % over the population figure) even more infected than here in Italy and Spain is very close to us. Ciao Image Unavailable, Please Login
Heartfelt sympathy to all in Italy and around the world. We are currently in lock down in Central London with temporary mortuaries being built around the city to cope with the expected influx of dead bodies. I was in the "this is nonsense " camp initially.PLEASE,PLEASE do not underestimate this anywhere in the world.
Not exactly sure that will be exactly true. They were unique factors as to not knowing enhancing the spread. Although clearly the United States has squandered some lead time for preparations that it could have. The one aspect that we have created in the United States is ICu capacity by canceling all elective and non-urgent procedures. Also we have the lessons of Wuhan and Italy and France to apply in the care of our patients. Lastly given the knowledge of a problem shifts how the problem hits although dense cities like New York Seattle Chicago will be at highest risk as well as places where people continue to move around and potentially infect other people prior to knowledge of their own disease. We hope. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Rationally-minded people will prevail, the United States will survive. I am dollar-cost-averaging into the chaos....
If you don t take immediatly drastics measures, situation in US will be the same as now in Europe, unfortunatly ! Be careful, please, be careful ! here at the Italian Border, it s slowly becoming an unknown apocalyptic way
Of course. Every country will survive but a lot of people will die before their time and we can all take action to help reduce the number that do.
Being prudent, quarantine measures...yes..of course...we are doing that. Now CALM down! Get a hold of yourselves!
I heard that it was a woman from China who came to attend the MFW, and that's how it all began! China is responsible for all the instant people who passed away!
Some update: The idea is that 1 out of 10 people that get sick, need to go to hospital! (Source: Marion Koopmans) Stats in Italy: 16% of people in hospital need IC care In Italy: from the people that were tested positive and are known/reported, the current data known is approx 50% recovered, 50% died. Lets hope more people register actually recovered, but are not reported/counted. Its not about the people positive and not tested, its not about the positives not tested and recovered...its about the absolute numbers of people ending up in Hospital...this virus has no mercy. It is also not about the IC's....they are FULL, and will be FULL in ALL EU countries soon! NL expects to hit 100% capacity coming week, no IC care available anymore for new patients. Hopes are on the 'lock down' having effect and the upwards curve ending...otherwise, **** will hit the fan! The real problem seems to be...all the people ending up in hospital with Corona are really sick...also those NOT in IC! I hear that 50% of the people on IC in NL are under 50! Even those hardly recover, at the moment they just hold on longer for now, because have stronger lungs. 80% are men. Diabetics seems to be a factor. Most of us will not be affected or end up in hospital, but this situation (where people cannot get the healthcare they need) and how aggressive the virus is for people who get sick from it is unprecedented in the world I live in. China is not at all a reference for what is happening in EU...the measures in China, can't be taken in EU or US. So forget the Chinese stats. My advice is, take it serious. If it hits US...man buckle up!
Interesting looking at the data in the chart that the reported death rate by country varies wildly - Italy's by far the highest. In some areas death rate well below 1% and of course this doesn't include those asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic carriers.
Without testing we simply don’t know what the real rates are but the disturbing trend is the number of healthy young people in ICUs and dying is not zero as was originally posited. Interest piece with timeline and spread. Explains a lot. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/22/world/coronavirus-spread.html?referringSource=articleShare Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Now in France chloroquine is largely tested in hospitals Maybe they have seen something interesting? Very informative interview by a famous French epidemiologist ( for French native speaker) https://www.laprovence.com/article/papier/5940125/pr-didier-raoult-je-ne-suis-pas-un-outsider-je-suis-en-avance.html?amp&__twitter_impression=true
While data in purely dogmatic science tradition is “not robust,” I think we have little to lose to prescribe plaquenil/z-pac combo to all people with symptoms, close contacts, and high-risk exposures. I am sure there are high-level government discussions going on right now about this. Both drugs are FDA approved for other indications with many years of safety data. I could see Trump circumventing Medicare and insurance regulations by providing drugs for “free” as part of an emergency aid package. I would cheer such a bold move.
OK, but let's say you have $100 to average in, and you put $20 in every time it goes down 5%. If it goes down 40% your average is still higher than when it had only gone down 20% and you have to choose between overextending yourself or just leaving it as is until it goes back up (Which it will, eventually)
DCA isn’t based upon a % drop...it is time-based. If I have $1000 in cash allocated to equity buying I might put $100/wednesdays x 10 weeks, regardless of what daily market fluctuations are doing. I have been sitting on large cash position for this purpose, would be crazy to not act...slowly and methodically of course.