Light Analysis of 458 Italia Market | Page 2 | FerrariChat

Light Analysis of 458 Italia Market

Discussion in '458 Italia/488/F8' started by LifeIsGR8, Dec 3, 2019.

This site may earn a commission from merchant affiliate links, including eBay, Amazon, Skimlinks, and others.

  1. tomc

    tomc Two Time F1 World Champ

    Apr 13, 2014
    25,865
    DFW, Texas
    Full Name:
    Tom C
    [QUOTE="LifeIsGR8, post: 146933491, member: 234079" what it looks like without those two top-mileage outliers. The delta in depreciation per mile is negligible - I'd have to target and remove upwards of 10% of the 100 samples to have a sizeable impact. :(

    View attachment 2862419




    Here is the exterior color distribution of available 458 Italias:

    View attachment 2862455

    My comment about "resale red" being true is based on comparing the trendline and overall distribution of red vs. non-red examples. Based on the visuals below, red examples have a higher price floor, or resale asking price. It's a bit rough of an insinuation to make based on these visuals alone (only 100 samples), but once you pull up seamlessly identical examples--one red one non-red--the price difference is apparent.

    View attachment 2862450




    I absolutely agree and am driving to rip up the canyons and track! But my pragmatic and analytical mind has taken over. Here's my total losses calculation over a 3-year ownership period, 458 vs GT3. At this time in my life, I'm not sure if that $900/mo delta in losses is justifiable. Just my own situation.

    View attachment 2862457

    I'm a nerd, I know. I'm glad others are enjoying the data as well.[/QUOTE]

    Actually, neglecting those two data points gets you about 2 K more miles for the same price. I like that!

    BTW, as a fellow numbers nerd, don't forget to put a price on your happiness. Assuming you have your financial s**t together, $900 is a small investment in something that brings you happiness...T
     
    gzachary and LifeIsGR8 like this.
  2. mdrums

    mdrums Formula 3

    Jun 11, 2006
    2,172
    Tampa FL
    Awesome...you have me beat by a little...10,100 miles on my 2018 GT3....I got it Dec 2018, previous owner put 5k miles on it in a year and I did 5k miles.....not nearly enough driving....lol love the car
     
    sampelligrino and LifeIsGR8 like this.
  3. rockminster

    rockminster Formula Junior
    Silver Subscribed

    Nov 20, 2003
    874
    Lake Tahoe
    Good stuff. The chart reminded me that the 458 is the first of the V8 Ferraris that were ordered in the color of white in a decent volume and that, IMO, looked really good wearing it.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
    sampelligrino and LifeIsGR8 like this.
  4. Thecadster

    Thecadster F1 Veteran
    Rossa Subscribed

    Apr 27, 2017
    6,702
    Interesting data. When measuring and accounting for “loss” and “cost”, are you working off of original MSRP for both GT3 and 458? If so, the direct comparison between GT3 and 458 might not be perfectly accurate. I believe that, at least initially, many of the GT3’s transacted at a premium to MSRP. Given that, any final conclusions therein will likely be skewed somewhere between nominally and significantly.
     
  5. LifeIsGR8

    LifeIsGR8 Rookie

    Dec 3, 2019
    12
    Los Angeles CA
    Full Name:
    HR
    MSRP is not considered. My calculations are based on today’s money and the variables that depreciate available for-sale examples as a proxy for future depreciation.
     
  6. Thecadster

    Thecadster F1 Veteran
    Rossa Subscribed

    Apr 27, 2017
    6,702
    Oops...I misread originally. Now I think I understand, post-depreciated pricing differences based on mileage determines loss per mile, right?
     
  7. LifeIsGR8

    LifeIsGR8 Rookie

    Dec 3, 2019
    12
    Los Angeles CA
    Full Name:
    HR
    Yessir. My original goal with the analysis was to understand how my driving would affect the resale. I’ve depreciated my R8 significantly by putting on nearly 42,000 miles over some years. If I did that sort of thing with a 458, I probably have to give it away. :)
     
    Thecadster likes this.
  8. rotate

    rotate Rookie

    Jan 6, 2006
    26
    Very interesting post. Is there some measure of milage depreciation when year is taken into account? In other words, in my searching, most of the higher milage models were not surprisingly early cars. If you look at the given data set for one model year, is milage still ~$4/mile? Would be super interesting to compare historical data of the same kind from even a year or two before to get an idea of value stabilization. I think we're at the point where cars are trading more on condition and have possibly reached their depreciation trough (maybe I'm just trying to convince myself here...)
     
    LifeIsGR8 likes this.
  9. IloveGT

    IloveGT Formula 3
    BANNED

    Oct 17, 2015
    2,419

    Actually a more telling and useful analysis here could be simple linear regression analysis - the magnitude of effect by each variable on the one outcome, the selling price, is quantified. For example, year, each spec, color, mileage. The outcome is price.

    The raw data shown here demonstrated that the year of the car predicably has less effect than mileage because the spread of the data for each year is much wider. This implies that a 2015 car could be sold much more than a same year car if the spec is nicer. Therefore, year alone will have less effect than mileage or spec on the selling price, unless the year is of extreme ends, and this is not surprising, because extreme years somewhat correlate with mileage.

    But all in all, Ferrari is never a good investment, and that joy could never be quantified. This is just a quick exercise of statistics, I hope.
     
    LifeIsGR8 likes this.
  10. one4torque

    one4torque F1 Veteran
    Silver Subscribed

    May 20, 2018
    5,084
    Houston
    Full Name:
    One4torque
    Please extend your value trends out 20 yrs. (jk)

    great analysis!

    thinking of a 458 for my wife, this is useful
     
    LifeIsGR8 likes this.
  11. racerdj

    racerdj F1 Veteran
    Owner

    Jan 19, 2003
    6,952
    Indianapolis
    Full Name:
    DJS
    Excellent work!
     
    LifeIsGR8 likes this.
  12. Kainedogg

    Kainedogg Rookie

    Jan 5, 2008
    36
    ALDIE, VA
    Awesome post OP. So basically I need to look in Texas for my above average mileage 458 coupe.
     
    LifeIsGR8 likes this.
  13. Surfah

    Surfah F1 Rookie

    Dec 20, 2011
    3,135
    $4-5 depreciation per mile for the 458.

    How much higher is depreciation for the 488 (earlier/steeper part of the curve/not as coveted on the secondary market) and F12 (V-12's historically depreciate more)?

    Have to imagine the FF depreciation per mile is significantly higher, double the 458?
     
    Avia11 likes this.
  14. Jon Von Bon

    Jon Von Bon Formula 3
    BANNED

    Feb 8, 2015
    1,697
    Toronto / Florida
    Full Name:
    Jeff
    HR, Great work there. I need an actuarial study on commercial flight to weather coefficient so that I can determine a revenue model.

    Just Kidding.

    Regards,

    Jeff
     
    LifeIsGR8 and Thecadster like this.
  15. LifeIsGR8

    LifeIsGR8 Rookie

    Dec 3, 2019
    12
    Los Angeles CA
    Full Name:
    HR
    I just ran the model for 2010-2012 and I don't think there are enough samples to confidently say one way vs another.
    Image Unavailable, Please Login

    Yes, with my primary goal of understanding average $/mi depreciation. I'm no statistician.

    Ha! Following a linear regression of mileage, a 458 with 45k mi will be free!

    I haven't collected data on a 488, but I can imagine it would be fairly unpredictable given the model is so new.
     
  16. Borrow’d Mine

    Borrow’d Mine Formula Junior
    Silver Subscribed

    Nov 28, 2019
    807
    Florida
    Options matter IMHO. Most buyers, not all of course, want a decently spec’d specimen.
     
  17. bball16

    bball16 F1 Rookie
    Rossa Subscribed

    Dec 2, 2011
    3,845
    NY LI FtL
    Full Name:
    Mike
    Does this include Spiders?
     
  18. Borrow’d Mine

    Borrow’d Mine Formula Junior
    Silver Subscribed

    Nov 28, 2019
    807
    Florida
    As owner of a 2015 458 in white, thanks rockminster



    Sent from my iPhone using FerrariChat.com mobile app
     
  19. Melvok

    Melvok F1 World Champ
    Owner Silver Subscribed

    Jul 25, 2008
    14,101
    Amersfoort, The Netherlands, Europe.
    Full Name:
    Mel
    I see a lot of data in these visualizations, great work !

    What I can do with these figures ? Sorry to say: nothing.

    Why ? I drive my 458 and have not to worry about costs.

    And I miss a column: EMOTION.
     
  20. Jason B

    Jason B Formula Junior

    Apr 7, 2006
    397
    Hbg, PA
    Kudos to a great post! Very cool and nice to see this info in chart form!

    Also been looking at 458's and currently have 08 Gallardo, rwd conversion and it's a freaking blast. Quite a few SL's are for sale right now which is funny how many there are with the supposed low production numbers. This car with the right exhaust along next to the 458 are some of the best sounding cars there are. Also there are the LFA/Carerra Gt. The exhaust note is incredible on this car.



    Now, for 458 Production numbers, I've heard it could be as high as 18,000. That's a lot of cars in a short period of time, makes for a better buyers marker. Some of my dealer friends say resale will continue to drop for another 2 years then level. Thoughts?
     
  21. LifeIsGR8

    LifeIsGR8 Rookie

    Dec 3, 2019
    12
    Los Angeles CA
    Full Name:
    HR
    Of course. I do however expect options to have a greater correlation to selling time than price, considering the rather tighten clustering + correlation to mileage.

    Yes it does. Although this was not a data point I captured separately, so I'm not able to generate coupe vs. sypder visualizations.

    That's great! This data is just not for you.
     
  22. Ianjoub

    Ianjoub Formula Junior

    Dec 22, 2019
    899
    Homosassa, FL USA
    Full Name:
    Ian Joubert
    That wouldn't work on a $225k car that you put 80k miles on :)
     
  23. LifeIsGR8

    LifeIsGR8 Rookie

    Dec 3, 2019
    12
    Los Angeles CA
    Full Name:
    HR
    Are you sure? I would love for you to pay me $135k to take your $225k 80mi 458. :)

    Jokes aside, my visualizations and correlation lines are definitely excluding outliers.
     
    Ianjoub likes this.
  24. Jason B

    Jason B Formula Junior

    Apr 7, 2006
    397
    Hbg, PA
    SO what's the prediction on 458 values in the next 2-3 years?
     
  25. LifeIsGR8

    LifeIsGR8 Rookie

    Dec 3, 2019
    12
    Los Angeles CA
    Full Name:
    HR
    My visualizations are based on data that represents only a snapshot in time, so I'm not in a position to make any predictions.

    However, if you have the determination to collect sales data from the previous 36 months, and then compare to the trends of the 430's trajectory, I bet you could get a good idea. Lots of variables go into legitimate future depreciation predictions and there's still a wide margin of error.
     
    Avia11 likes this.

Share This Page