[QUOTE="LifeIsGR8, post: 146933491, member: 234079" what it looks like without those two top-mileage outliers. The delta in depreciation per mile is negligible - I'd have to target and remove upwards of 10% of the 100 samples to have a sizeable impact. View attachment 2862419 Here is the exterior color distribution of available 458 Italias: View attachment 2862455 My comment about "resale red" being true is based on comparing the trendline and overall distribution of red vs. non-red examples. Based on the visuals below, red examples have a higher price floor, or resale asking price. It's a bit rough of an insinuation to make based on these visuals alone (only 100 samples), but once you pull up seamlessly identical examples--one red one non-red--the price difference is apparent. View attachment 2862450 I absolutely agree and am driving to rip up the canyons and track! But my pragmatic and analytical mind has taken over. Here's my total losses calculation over a 3-year ownership period, 458 vs GT3. At this time in my life, I'm not sure if that $900/mo delta in losses is justifiable. Just my own situation. View attachment 2862457 I'm a nerd, I know. I'm glad others are enjoying the data as well.[/QUOTE] Actually, neglecting those two data points gets you about 2 K more miles for the same price. I like that! BTW, as a fellow numbers nerd, don't forget to put a price on your happiness. Assuming you have your financial s**t together, $900 is a small investment in something that brings you happiness...T
Awesome...you have me beat by a little...10,100 miles on my 2018 GT3....I got it Dec 2018, previous owner put 5k miles on it in a year and I did 5k miles.....not nearly enough driving....lol love the car
Good stuff. The chart reminded me that the 458 is the first of the V8 Ferraris that were ordered in the color of white in a decent volume and that, IMO, looked really good wearing it. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Interesting data. When measuring and accounting for “loss” and “cost”, are you working off of original MSRP for both GT3 and 458? If so, the direct comparison between GT3 and 458 might not be perfectly accurate. I believe that, at least initially, many of the GT3’s transacted at a premium to MSRP. Given that, any final conclusions therein will likely be skewed somewhere between nominally and significantly.
MSRP is not considered. My calculations are based on today’s money and the variables that depreciate available for-sale examples as a proxy for future depreciation.
Oops...I misread originally. Now I think I understand, post-depreciated pricing differences based on mileage determines loss per mile, right?
Yessir. My original goal with the analysis was to understand how my driving would affect the resale. I’ve depreciated my R8 significantly by putting on nearly 42,000 miles over some years. If I did that sort of thing with a 458, I probably have to give it away.
Very interesting post. Is there some measure of milage depreciation when year is taken into account? In other words, in my searching, most of the higher milage models were not surprisingly early cars. If you look at the given data set for one model year, is milage still ~$4/mile? Would be super interesting to compare historical data of the same kind from even a year or two before to get an idea of value stabilization. I think we're at the point where cars are trading more on condition and have possibly reached their depreciation trough (maybe I'm just trying to convince myself here...)
Actually a more telling and useful analysis here could be simple linear regression analysis - the magnitude of effect by each variable on the one outcome, the selling price, is quantified. For example, year, each spec, color, mileage. The outcome is price. The raw data shown here demonstrated that the year of the car predicably has less effect than mileage because the spread of the data for each year is much wider. This implies that a 2015 car could be sold much more than a same year car if the spec is nicer. Therefore, year alone will have less effect than mileage or spec on the selling price, unless the year is of extreme ends, and this is not surprising, because extreme years somewhat correlate with mileage. But all in all, Ferrari is never a good investment, and that joy could never be quantified. This is just a quick exercise of statistics, I hope.
Please extend your value trends out 20 yrs. (jk) great analysis! thinking of a 458 for my wife, this is useful
$4-5 depreciation per mile for the 458. How much higher is depreciation for the 488 (earlier/steeper part of the curve/not as coveted on the secondary market) and F12 (V-12's historically depreciate more)? Have to imagine the FF depreciation per mile is significantly higher, double the 458?
HR, Great work there. I need an actuarial study on commercial flight to weather coefficient so that I can determine a revenue model. Just Kidding. Regards, Jeff
I just ran the model for 2010-2012 and I don't think there are enough samples to confidently say one way vs another. Image Unavailable, Please Login Yes, with my primary goal of understanding average $/mi depreciation. I'm no statistician. Ha! Following a linear regression of mileage, a 458 with 45k mi will be free! I haven't collected data on a 488, but I can imagine it would be fairly unpredictable given the model is so new.
As owner of a 2015 458 in white, thanks rockminster Sent from my iPhone using FerrariChat.com mobile app
I see a lot of data in these visualizations, great work ! What I can do with these figures ? Sorry to say: nothing. Why ? I drive my 458 and have not to worry about costs. And I miss a column: EMOTION.
Kudos to a great post! Very cool and nice to see this info in chart form! Also been looking at 458's and currently have 08 Gallardo, rwd conversion and it's a freaking blast. Quite a few SL's are for sale right now which is funny how many there are with the supposed low production numbers. This car with the right exhaust along next to the 458 are some of the best sounding cars there are. Also there are the LFA/Carerra Gt. The exhaust note is incredible on this car. Now, for 458 Production numbers, I've heard it could be as high as 18,000. That's a lot of cars in a short period of time, makes for a better buyers marker. Some of my dealer friends say resale will continue to drop for another 2 years then level. Thoughts?
Of course. I do however expect options to have a greater correlation to selling time than price, considering the rather tighten clustering + correlation to mileage. Yes it does. Although this was not a data point I captured separately, so I'm not able to generate coupe vs. sypder visualizations. That's great! This data is just not for you.
Are you sure? I would love for you to pay me $135k to take your $225k 80mi 458. Jokes aside, my visualizations and correlation lines are definitely excluding outliers.
My visualizations are based on data that represents only a snapshot in time, so I'm not in a position to make any predictions. However, if you have the determination to collect sales data from the previous 36 months, and then compare to the trends of the 430's trajectory, I bet you could get a good idea. Lots of variables go into legitimate future depreciation predictions and there's still a wide margin of error.