is the bubble due to burst? | Page 131 | FerrariChat

is the bubble due to burst?

Discussion in 'Vintage Ferrari Market' started by PFSEX, Jan 18, 2013.

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  1. malcolmjl

    malcolmjl Karting

    Mar 27, 2014
    129
    los angeles
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  2. BMW.SauberF1Team

    BMW.SauberF1Team F1 World Champ

    Dec 4, 2004
    14,244
    If you want to keep it simple just follow the yield curve once it hits zero/negative it will be about a year until the recession is underway. I still think that it will be late 2019 when that happens and we will see prices start coming down as a whole after that. There will always be a couple people that pay an absurd amount as billionaires are still minted in recessions, but collectively the market will correct the asset price inflation we've had back down. For now we are good. I will try to remember my post in mid-2020 to see if my prediction was somewhat close.
     
  3. pauls

    pauls Formula Junior

    Apr 25, 2004
    524
    In my opinion the Ferrari market is already soft and getting softer. Lusso's that soled for 2.5 million may be getting 1.5 million. Daytonas that were up to 1 million are now asking 675k. The Ferrari GTO being auctioned at Pebble Beach has an estimate that is unchanged since the last public auction approximately 3 years ago. The last Ferrari GTO was a less significant car then the car now being auctioned at Pebble Beach. We do not like to admit that our Ferrraris are monetarily bulletproof. The argument that the number of Ferraris is limited and the number of wealthy people is almost unlimited does not stand up in the real world. Money has moved away from tangible good such as Ferraris. I believe that the Ferrari market will continue to get softer.
     
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  4. Caeruleus11

    Caeruleus11 F1 World Champ
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    Jun 11, 2013
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    You might be right, but I don't think you can use the GTO market as a guide to anything else. I never heard the argument that the number of wealthy people is almost unlimited. But it is an expanding number and the number of vintage Ferraris is fixed. I am not arguing the market will get stronger, I can't really say. I think some of this is generational. I also suspect the newer generation will eventually get into older Ferraris but its hard to predict where the pricing will go.
     
  5. Gh21631

    Gh21631 F1 Veteran
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    Feb 24, 2011
    8,325
    East
    It has been soft for a few years now but these things move in cycles. They will get bought up now with patient capital and will be resold at much higher values then everyone will kick themselves
     
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  6. Texas Forever

    Texas Forever Seven Time F1 World Champ
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    Apr 28, 2003
    75,396
    Texas!
    The problem is your new world order billionaires are not car people. They are simply investors who are constrained as to how much money they can take out of their own country.
     
  7. pauls

    pauls Formula Junior

    Apr 25, 2004
    524
    The unlimited number of wealthy people has been used on this thread too many times to count. I don't believe this but was using it to address this panel. I do believe that the GTO is a guide. If the ultra rich will not pay more for a more significant GTO I have to scratch my head why. Has the GTO price plateaued? If so this indicator more than any other single car indicator describes the market. We keep hearing the middle class Ferraris may get a hit ( as we see this has happened) but platinum, unique class cars will get the large cash. I would describe the GTO at Pebble as a very significant and worthy car. It should command a higher estimate as compared to the GTO sold a few years ago. That last GTO sold publicly had some issues including the rumor that a driver died in the car. The present GTO has no significant issues.
     
  8. pauls

    pauls Formula Junior

    Apr 25, 2004
    524
    Not yet. Hang on.
     
  9. paulchua

    paulchua Cat Herder
    Lifetime Rossa Owner

    Jul 1, 2013
    15,983
    Menlo Park, CA
    Full Name:
    Paul Chua
    Yes, really - You must have missed the story how the Admiral got his Mondial 500.

    What will be up to debate is the final sale price.

    That said the market has been roughly flat for the last couple years (as much as you like to assert it already 'crashed' last year) I personally think the ascent is done, but that's just my $0.02 and I always offer refunds. I just recently moved much to the sidelines myself in terms of equities.

    It's been a good run.
     
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  10. Caeruleus11

    Caeruleus11 F1 World Champ
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    Jun 11, 2013
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    I can't disagree but my feeling is something like the GTO market is hard to use as a guide: yes its a market of cars, but 36 cars, with only 1 or 2 trading every now and then, makes for a difficult gauge. I think its closer to a series of one off transactions. I don't know the provenance the car at Pebble this year. I'll take your word that it's good. If it doesn't do well we will all wonder what's going on. But lets admit that the very next day someone might buy this car, perhaps for even more than what the auctions were showing. My very limited experience and observation of auctions is they do a lot of things and if you are looking to make judgements of a market you have to understand all the nonsense that goes on, I don't really know it all, but I do know to be cautious and aware.
     
  11. Caeruleus11

    Caeruleus11 F1 World Champ
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    Jun 11, 2013
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    I know you are right, but I also know some of these people and the ones I know are definitely car people. So I would say while your point is absolutely a real factor, and perhaps it is the larger factor, I do think there are more typical "car guy" factors at work.

    The big question I have is what happens when the latest generation has the buying power to buy a car like the oft discussed 250 GTO. Will they still want it, or will they say that is for old people and give me the latest Mega LaFerrari?

    My gut feeling is people will still appreciate the classic cars. As to values- who really knows. I think if you buy a car and don't enjoy the car part of it, you are missing the entire point.
     
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  12. oelboxer

    oelboxer Karting
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    Apr 4, 2018
    117
    Full Name:
    Matt Wright
    I think this is a huge problem for the classic car market. The generations who are coming into their wealth (or coming into controlling their families' wealth) don't seem to have the appreciation we have for the automobile in general. A bulky percentage of the coming generations are (rightly) aware and sometimes focused on environmental concerns. It's an integral part of their lifestyles. This awareness and concern doesn't leave room for old internal combustion engines. Those who underestimate this trend aren't connected. Musk knows where we're headed.
     
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  13. energy88

    energy88 Two Time F1 World Champ
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    Jan 21, 2012
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    West of Fredericksburg, VA
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    John
    I think it is the fact that a lot of the current living population has an almost near-real time perspective (thru parents, grand parents, etc) of the automobile from horses to dirt roads to motorized wagons to automobiles that are now standard with hundreds of amazing features. The younger generation takes this for granted like color TV sets, mobile phones, the internet, etc. that have been around for all their existence on earth.
     
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  14. Bradwilliams

    Bradwilliams F1 Veteran
    Silver Subscribed

    Now the snake oil being cooked up in the kitchen is the 2000s? "Get em now, last of the manual transmissions!" Geez.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-16/how-does-a-bmw-sports-sedan-double-in-value-over-16-years

    The reason that this car is valuable, and the ways in which that value is determined, says as much about how the collectible car market is structured as it does about the inherent qualities of the car itself, says David Brynan, a senior specialist at Gooding & Co. “The collectible market is driven by insiders, and they assign value to things,” he explains.

    -So the "insiders" whoever they are, determine the prices of the "collectible cars" now. Okay pal.
     
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  15. Caeruleus11

    Caeruleus11 F1 World Champ
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    Jun 11, 2013
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    Good points but you only need a small percentage of this generation to keep the market going. And from what I see, the market isn't going to evaporate. I actually think its a mistake to underestimate the passion for the automobile the millennials and even gen Z exhibit. I suspect it will continue. It might even get STRONGER because it could be seen as something so different and exotic. I mean, a machine that runs without microprocessors?! How can that be!
     
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  16. ttforcefed

    ttforcefed F1 World Champ
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    Aug 22, 2002
    18,772
    Musk is a fraud and retard.


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  17. Caeruleus11

    Caeruleus11 F1 World Champ
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    And then there's that. He is a visionary, but maybe the daily grind of running a car company isn't for him. He has done some very questionable things for which most other CEOs would be out on their rear ends- and possibly facing criminal penalties. From my vantage point he looks dangerously close to a full on meltdown. I watched an interview he gave on You Tube and he looks strung out.
     
  18. ttforcefed

    ttforcefed F1 World Champ
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    Aug 22, 2002
    18,772
    He's strung out on coke and leverage. Bad combination.


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  19. Bradwilliams

    Bradwilliams F1 Veteran
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    https://www.google.com/amp/amp.timeinc.net/thedrive/news/23188/someone-paid-176000-for-a-2002-bmw-m5-at-monterey-car-week?source=dam


    Move over 80s and 90s euro cars, we now have some new snake oil being hawked over at gooding and co. Now its the late 90s early 2000s cars. I wonder if the stampede of suckers has already begun to try to buy these things up. So the auction gets a hold of this car, does some media buzz hyping it up and states "weve never run a car like this through our auction, should be interesting, and for some reason the car should fetch, ahhhhh lets say almost 200k! Yeah yeah thats the ticket! Its a rare car and everybody wants a limp 500 mile paperweight m5, and if they dont we have a straw bidder or two lined up who will, not to worry. No shame lol. I wonder what the next pitch will be.
     
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  20. energy88

    energy88 Two Time F1 World Champ
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    Jan 21, 2012
    26,819
    West of Fredericksburg, VA
    Full Name:
    John
    Are we now living in an alternative universe? On a lark, I just ran the car thru Edmunds with less than 500 miles and perfect condition and got this! Did I miss something?

    2002 BMW M5
    Base 4dr Car
    TMV® Pricing Details
      • Trade-In
      • Private Party
      • Dealer Retail
      • National Base Price
      • $6,643
      • $8,315
      • $11,102
      • Optional Equipment
      • $0
      • $0
      • $0
      • Color Adjustment - Blue Water Metallic
      • $15
      • $19
      • $26
      • Regional Adjustment - for Zip Code 22508
      • $-83
      • $-104
      • $-139
      • Mileage Adjustment - 499 miles
      • $2,434
      • $2,434
      • $2,434
      • Condition Adjustment - Outstanding
      • $0
      • $0
      • $0
      • Total
      • $9,009
      • $10,664
      • $13,423
     
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  21. sixcarbs

    sixcarbs F1 Veteran
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    Dec 19, 2004
    9,065
    SF
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  22. Texas Forever

    Texas Forever Seven Time F1 World Champ
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    Apr 28, 2003
    75,396
    Texas!
  23. italiancars

    italiancars F1 Rookie

    Apr 18, 2004
    3,338
    Hershey, PA
    This car was all about its mileage. The question becomes what do you do with it, you can drive it. Trailer it to BMW club Concours?
     
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