30K mile Carrera GT.....Thoughts? | Page 2 | FerrariChat

30K mile Carrera GT.....Thoughts?

Discussion in 'Porsche' started by F355 Fan 82, Apr 5, 2018.

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  1. cnpapa24

    cnpapa24 F1 Rookie

    Jan 19, 2014
    3,629
    NOLA
    Full Name:
    Chris
    $470k fully serviced is a reasonable deal. There will always be someone out there who wants a car with miles to drive if the discount to the low mile cars is significant enough.
     
  2. Andial

    Andial Formula Junior

    Jun 19, 2016
    395
    That isn't true at all. Some people buy supercars to hoard and don't maintain them.
     
  3. Andial

    Andial Formula Junior

    Jun 19, 2016
    395
    He should know that a lower mileage example will feel tighter which may impact what car he goes for.
     
  4. John B

    John B Formula 3

    May 27, 2003
    1,564
    NJ
    Being somewhat of a data geek, and interested in the subject of CGT pricing vs miles (as I ran mine over 10,000 Image Unavailable, Please Login ) I did a regression of the CGT auction prices vs miles. I found a non-linear relationship as prices drop very quickly for the first few hundred / thousand miles then flatten out more over 5,000. Consequently, a non-linear regression of Price vs Log(Miles) fits much better than a linear regression of Price vs Miles and is sensible as miles cannot be negative. These are auction prices + premium so reflect the offered side of the market. Bid-Ask spreads are probably 15%.

    Bottom line, here is an easy equation relating CGT Ask prices to mileage from recent auction data.
    Of course condition, color, and service matter a lot. The Standard error of the estimate is $105k.

    Image Unavailable, Please Login

    Ask Price = 1312.5 - Ln(Miles)
    100 Miles = 959
    1,000 Miles = 782
    5,000 Miles = 658
    10,000 Miles = 605
    20,000 Miles = 552
    30,000 Miles = 521

    This exercise actually made me feel better about putting miles on my car and enjoying it. It also explains why some of the extremely low mile cars tend to stay that way. If You're looking for a car to drive and enjoy, the sweet spot seems to be 5,000+ miles.

    The dealers $529 asked price for the 30,000-mile car falls in line with the model estimate of $521. I figure Bid side would be $445 (85%), so $470 looks like a pretty good deal to me. Get a PPI done. If the clutch passes tolerance (28-31mm), buy it and drive it a little to see if he really likes it (he will!). If he likes it figure in a major service over next winter and keep on driving it!


     
  5. TnJed

    TnJed Karting

    Apr 20, 2015
    165
    Nashville
    Full Name:
    Eric Griffin
    I almost took that car in on trade. It needed a lot of service then.
     
  6. BMW.SauberF1Team

    BMW.SauberF1Team F1 World Champ

    Dec 4, 2004
    14,244
    Holy crap that is awesome charting work. It's not a bad way to get owners to put more miles on their car without as much worry on price as you say.
     
  7. ReyF

    ReyF Karting

    Jan 10, 2017
    73
    $470k with 30k miles does not sound that bad. If the condition of the car matches or surpasses its ask then it may make a smart purchase for a person who actually wants to drive it and not stare at it in a garage collecting dust. They are great cars with great capabilities. The maintenance cost seems a bit ridiculous but hey if you could afford the car then the maintenance may be a non issue. Honestly I'm tired of seeing manufactures put so much technology and performance into a car, only to see it go into a garage and never come out until it gets to the next owner. We only live once folks, if you have been bless with the means to buy such an automobile then go out and make memories with every mile you put on it...like many back in the days used to do.
     
    BMW.SauberF1Team likes this.
  8. Tcar

    Tcar F1 Rookie

    Like collecting stamps, or coins...
     
    ReyF likes this.
  9. LightGuy

    LightGuy Three Time F1 World Champ
    Silver Subscribed

    Oct 4, 2004
    39,601
    Texas
    Full Name:
    David
    If you are going to drive the heck out of it then it makes sense.
    I have found that when buying a lower mile car and promise to drive it I get second thoughts when it gets into the garage.
    If that's the case then pop for the lower mileage car for the extra 100K.

    IIRC Cats has a black CGT for 600K

    My question; CGT or 599 GTO ?
     

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