you mean besides a scam ?
No. I mean what I said. You posted a screen grab of some cars and I say without knowing more, then that is just a bunch of asking prices. So many factors can affect pricing- so I would want to know more before making any kind of conclusion based on those datapoints.
Oh I misunderstood that. Sorry! So what do you all think now that rates seem to be creeping up and they got rid of 1031 exchanges for cars. Some of you very likely know way more than I, but my feeling is theres been a little bit of a pull back and I think this will continue.
That would be a dream come true! A cal spider under $1m? Unfortunately I don’t think we will see those prices ever again.
So it looks like in the end, the bubble didn't burst, just deflated bit. The best outcome really. And also, we're probably going through a bit of a generational "taste" adjustment. Post-60's cars are gaining in appreciation and perhaps 50's and 60's machines have topped out for a moment, though they will continue to have appeal for a long time. And on that note, what about pre-war/depression era cars? After the Baby-Boomers, will they be desired by the new generation of collectors and aficionados? So no $1M California, we'll never see that again. But even a California stalled out along its way to the moon. But oh what a vehicle in which to try. -F
I said back in October in this thread we've had massive asset price inflation due to multiple governments quantitative easing. They've all expressed interested in winding those programs down and selling off and increasing rates. I still think we'll head into a recession in 2019, which the NBER will formerly announce in 2020. All asset prices, including collectible cars, should come down then. 50% off I doubt it...closer to 20% pullback if I had to guess.
Tend to agree with the 20% ballpark figure which is 1 standard deviation (Post #3170) which rises above the level of noise or a normal pull back.
If the 10 yr continues to rally we will have massive inflation and hard asset prices will most likely rise. Sent from my BBB100-3 using Tapatalk
I think Japan is still waiting for their inflation after years of government funded stimulation and quantitative easing... Edit: And when people say inflation, I assume they are referring to CPI and not asset prices.
It wasn't that long ago. Maybe pre QE, I don't have a chart. Late 90's for sure. Back in my trading days we had a rule. Never use absolutes. Never say never, or always. (Which is funny because the saying itself is an absolute.) Way too many times in my life someone seasoned has turned to me and said, "I've never seen this before." Doesn't matter, it's just my definition of a bursting bubble, not necessarily my prediction.
have you noticed the change ?? The opposition party last week held / credited this market as O'Bama's , this week it's Trump's market / economy :=)
It's been fun reading all these posts. My opinion for what it's worth, is that the stock market mirrors exotic car prices to a great extent. There has been great wealth created over the last 40 years. I was fortunate to have worked on the Street since the early 70s. I've seen the markets rise and fall a few times. In the late 70 and early 80 there were serious bargains to be had, although I didn't think so at the time. I remember rejecting a Daytona because I thought $40,000 was too much for a so-so condition car. I eventually sold all my Ferraris after Enzo died. For a while I thought I was smart, but like all markets one day they recovered. Today I enjoy the memories of when we could drive these cars everywhere, even to the mall. These older Ferraris are just moving art these days. I remember when we could no longer drive these cars with impunity, because the value kept climbing beyond what any insurance company would pay you to repair your car. One day I started writing about some cars I owned, and it led to a personal history about the cars I've loved. Rereading the posts recently has brought back a flood of memories I had since forgotten. You can read them here: https://tinyurl.com/yb7zh2s4
Why did prices start taking off after 2008 then? They seem to be closer to commodity values. Prices took off in 2008 when oil started climbing then slumping as oil dropped off in late 2014. Their longevity and value became much greater when people began tying the two together and began seeing cars as an investment.
Market data isn't a matter of opinion, the facts are out there with a bit of research. A very quick google brought this chart and article from 2015, which shows that in the five year window from 2010 to 2015 the cars covered by the HAGI 50 had little correlation with the FTSE, gold, or anything else. The data is out there for longer periods, which would take a few minutes more googling. http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/investing/article-3190529/Get-taste-investments-fun-funds-Wine-classic-cars-provide-enjoyment-sparkling-returns.html A lot of cars, older and newer classics, Ferraris and others, went up by up to 100% between 2010 and 2016. A lot of these are down 20% or so since then. That doesn't follow the curve of any other asset class I know, except, perhaps, prime property here in central London (maybe elsewhere too). Opinions of people I respect as to what happens from here vary from 'the money's moved on' to 'the best will always go up'. In the meanwhile two other classes of so called investments of passion, wine and contemporary art, have had a boom-bust-gentle revival, and a more or less relentless boom, respectively. Who knows what that means. Personally, I think that a GTO (an original one) will be a better place for your money than a 599 GTO, but...that's just a guess.
what began to take off in 2008? definitely not cars. Cars didnt take off until 2012. from early 2009 to late 2011 you cld have bought anything you wanted with absolutely no rush.
is the bubble due to burst? I always turn on Liz Business and discover it's two bubbles Image Unavailable, Please Login Image Unavailable, Please Login
\ "Anyone saying the economy is in decline is peddling fiction" -B.O. His best quote ever. The economy was a joke up until early 2017, it was no secret. And for those who don't remember the summer of 2015 through December? The stock market was sick as a dog, and couldn't make up its mind what to do. The mood was god awful, and signaled a lack of confidence in the status quo. Everybody was running for the exits. It was 1980 all over again. The Dow also had its longest losing streak in over thirty years during that period. All of the signals of an overthrow of the status quo were there, the people who were wise knew it, the media thought they could hide it, and they failed. And the only things that improved from 2008 to 2016 were, stocks, hard assets, etc. Main street was still deader than ever.
Doubt it. Syria is only a thud and we've been thru that exercise before. However, if Syria leads to a Black Swan event such as WW-III, then that would most certainly induce a change in trend. It gets back to the classic forces of Fear and Greed in markets.
No crystal ball. But the only thing I think anyone can foresee in the near future (1-4 years) would be 1. A possible change in government administration (tax cut repeal) 2. Fed continuing to tighten the noose on interest rates and ending the party 3. A war? Possible but I doubt it. My guess is the fed is going to continue hiking rates for reasons we can't get into on this forum. The market and economy will eventually give, it always does. I hope it only takes the stocks down and not our GDP/economy. We need the economic growth badly.
All possible. A few perspectives to add here. The tax law changes did simplify some things, but nearly enough (I pay a lot more now, but I support any deductions and loop holes - there should be a mortgage deduction - it's just a subsidy for the housing industry). But more importantly, the taxes most talk about are not the problem. It doesn't matter anymore how much the govt taxes on income (corporate or indiv) because they still run a huge deficit and borrow way beyond their means with the support of the Fed (which has the legal monopoly to print money). So the biggest tax of all is the deficit and associated money printing. It's called the inflation tax. Whether they take your income dollars directly, or devalue the dollar through printing - your total dollars buy less stuff. We are at $21T of debt and $100T+ of off balance sheet liabilities. We are absolutely headed to some form of default. Govt can't tax all the rich enough to pay off all the debt. Most of the off balance sheet services will not be provided. It's past the point of no return. Which leads me to #2 above. Yes, they may tighten some more, but no way they are taking rates up to where the free market would take them if the central banks didn't interfere so much. Interest on the debt and the huge debt bubble would collapse. It's all jaw boning at this point. They're raising so they have so room to lower when this debt cycle blows up. We are in the peak of another Austrian business cycle which will crash because of too much debt just like all the rest of them. As for war - well aren't we always dropping bombs on people? Bush, Obama and now Trump - they all got sucked in by the industrial military complex. It's endless. In the end, this country has fallen into serious central planning (healthcare, welfare, Fed, military, pensions, etc etc) and it's costing the country through death by a thousand cuts. Regulation has skyrocketed in the last 10 years or so. Politicians appeal to the ignorant masses about what they will do to stop the "evil" business people and other made up enemies so they can get votes and make the state even bigger. Which is hilarious because it's the govt that rules by aggression, not businesses. We need decentralization (note how people are leaving blue states for red states - but we are stuck with one federal govt). We need to shrink the federal govt by a massive amount and leave more to the states who then have to compete with each other for businesses and residents. Brexit is a good example of a trend toward decentralization (middle finger up at EU's central planning). As proven in Russia and Venezuela, among many other countries, central planning never works in the long run. It's a bubble for sure, but no one can predict the timing of the swing the other way.
