'We Are Approaching the End of the Automotive Era' | FerrariChat

'We Are Approaching the End of the Automotive Era'

Discussion in 'General Automotive Discussion' started by NürScud, Nov 11, 2017.

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  1. NürScud

    NürScud F1 Veteran

    Nov 3, 2012
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    #1 NürScud, Nov 11, 2017
    Last edited: Nov 11, 2017
    Last night i came across with an article in TheDrive site, which was an interview of Bob Lutz and was about of the automobile future. That's a nice food for thought discussion.

    Here it is:

    The 85-year-old Bob Lutz knows a thing or two about the car business. He’s held impressive titles like Vice Chairman of General Motors, Executive Vice President of Ford, Executive Vice President of Sales at BMW, and the head of Global Product Development at Chrysler. With achievements like the Ford Explorer, Dodge Viper, Chevy Volt, and BMW 3 Series all happening with his influence, Lutz has been shaking up the automotive industry for over 40 years. Oh, and he still isn’t retired. He’s running a company called VLF Automotive which builds low-volume supercars and exports Hummers to China.

    Lutz recently wrote an editorial entitled “Kiss the good times goodbye” published by Automotive News that predicts nothing short of a complete upheaval of the car industry as we know it today. It’s actually quite dark and goes as far as saying the transition to fully autonomous transportation “will be largely complete in 20 years” in a dystopia where human driving will be banned.

    “Now we are approaching the end of the line for the automobile because travel will be in standardized modules,” says Lutz in the article. “The end state will be the fully autonomous module with no capability for the driver to exercise command. You will call for it, it will arrive at your location, you'll get in, input your destination and go to the freeway.”

    In other words, it will be an extreme version of a ride-hailing service like Uber or Lyft, but instead of getting a ride from some freelance driver, it will be a fully autonomous pod sharing the road with nothing but other fully autonomous pods.

    But who will own the pods? “Most of these standardized modules will be purchased and owned by the Ubers and Lyfts and God knows what other companies that will enter the transportation business in the future,” says Lutz. “A minority of individuals may elect to have personalized modules sitting at home so they can leave their vacation stuff and the kids' soccer gear in them. They'll still want that convenience. The vehicles, however, will no longer be driven by humans because in 15 to 20 years — at the latest — human-driven vehicles will be legislated off the highways.”

    20 years at the latest?! Come on, Bob! Give us a little more hope than that! If that’s the case, what are we going to do with all of the cars we have until then? “Of course, there will be a transition period,” says Lutz. “Everyone will have five years to get their car off the road or sell it for scrap or trade it on a module.”

    This isn’t the first time we’ve heard a prediction like this. In 2015, Atari founder Nolan Bushnell told USA Today that he thought human driving in cities would be banned by 2035. However, a prediction like this carries a bit more weight coming from a man like Bob Lutz considering his credentials and intimate knowledge of the auto industry.

    As lovers of driving here at The Drive, we hate to admit that Bob Lutz makes a lot of good points. While we’re not so sure about the time frame of his predictions, everything he says in his article could very well become a reality and the true future of transportation

    Link: http://www.thedrive.com/sheetmetal/15975/bob-lutz-says-we-are-approaching-the-end-of-the-automotive-era

    However i didn't understand something. If in the near future i would like to keep my garage queen M3 E46 CSL , will somebody make me sell it or scrap it (!) for being able to buy a 'module'?

    I find this really crap...and honestly..i believe that nobody can force you to do something that you don't want to.
     
  2. BMW.SauberF1Team

    BMW.SauberF1Team F1 World Champ

    Dec 4, 2004
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    Did he predict the demise of GM and Chrysler while working there? Probably not. 15 year prediction is a joke.
     
    NürScud likes this.
  3. 4th_gear

    4th_gear F1 Rookie

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    His prediction doesn't make any sense and I would bet most of his impressive later career posts had a lot more to do with corporate politics and not actual automotive substance. At 84 he really doesn't care and the guy is probably also a bit senile and psycho/narcissist. What he predicts requires humans to have no memory of or expectations of self determination, something that would take many many generations to breed us out of.

    Go to the most congested urban places in the world and you will still find the need for vehicles or in fact endeavours that are driven or controlled by individuals and not robots or corporate design. It's like saying all tourists will use chartered coaches instead of self-directing their own tours or that big corporations will crowd out all small and medium size companies or that all inventions will come from committees and not guys working from their garage, basement or that no one would own their own farm or garden...etc or even their own house.

    Thank god human beings are a lot more chaotic and control freak than that. It's called individualism and is arguably the cornerstone of the American dream. Bob will have to kill that first. Good luck because it will take just one nasty major global calamity to have people realize we still need human beings at the controls.
     
    NürScud likes this.
  4. mello

    mello F1 Veteran
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    I will always remember him as the guy that build cars that the public don't want to buy. Yet, expects a government bailout.
     
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  5. davidoloan

    davidoloan Formula Junior

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    Where do you get that from?
     
  6. Michael B

    Michael B F1 Rookie
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    Guys, you are simply looking at this wrong. I hear what Bob is saying loud & clear. No one will be forced to do this, but the masses will instead do it out of economics. Think... No car payment for the masses. No insurance payment for the masses. No maintenance cost for the masses. No registration fees for the masses. No traffic tickets for the masses. No parking fees for the masses. No fuel costs for the masses. Yet they can still shuttle about in a module without any of those evils. Yes you & I are equipped to absorb those expenses voluntarily but the masses quite honestly would happily do without. Once the aforementioned "module" option is readily available to them they will abandon their current mode of expensive transportation without hesitation.

    For us we will be taxed to make up for all of the lost revenue (from the loss of the masses who defected) and it will then get very expensive to drive our cherished cars. Then once that fails to work properly for the government they will then legislate us right off of the road in fear of messing it up for the masses who will be enjoying their module commute.

    It has started already gents. It may take time to reach remote areas sure, but the masses are not in remote areas.
     
  7. donv

    donv Two Time F1 World Champ
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    Bob is absolutely right. If you want to read his original article, it's here:

    http://www.autonews.com/article/20171105/INDUSTRY_REDESIGNED/171109944/bob-lutz:-kiss-the-good-times-goodbye

    I think his timeline is a little bit aggressive, and I can quibble about the details, but directionally he's right on. Look, you'll still be able to drive your vintage car, but don't expect to take it on the freeway or into a city center (except maybe for a special occasion). Just like a Model T or a horse today. From a car enthusiast perspective, this is probably a good thing. The daily grind of being stuck in traffic will be handled by the autonomous vehicle, but on the weekends you can still drive your fun car.

    For most people, who don't care about cars, this will be a life changing experience, and a vast improvement.
     
    Texas Forever likes this.
  8. TheMayor

    TheMayor Nine Time F1 World Champ
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    Vegas baby
    You won't own a car in the future. You'll rent it by the minute.

    You need an SUV to take the kids to the zoo? No problem.
    You need a single passenger car to take you to work? No problem
    You need a truck to get supplies at Home Depot? No problem

    No car payment, no repossessions, no sales taxes, no registration fees, no gas tax, no car insurance, no DUI, no car crashes (all the cars will talk to each other preventing a crash from ever happening). All that will be "pay as you go" by the mile or minute or both.

    As to be able to drive your vintage car... yes. But gasoline will be hard to get and expensive and refineries shut down. And, most likely, you'll need a special permit as these cars won't communicate with the autonomous cars and will be viewed as "safety hazards" as well as gross polluters.

    There is no question that this will happen. The only question is when.
     
  9. Smiles

    Smiles F1 World Champ
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    Bob Lutz was an out-dated, old American dinosaur twenty years ago.

    Matt
     
  10. LamboLover

    LamboLover F1 Rookie

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    Without diving too much into politics, I hear people debate quite a bit how much of a relationship oil companies have with the US Govt.

    So if true, I would assume these would be the biggest protestors to an autonomous world of pods because it would make them obsolete?
     
  11. tritone

    tritone F1 Veteran
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    My thoughts too..........literally millions of people employed in the oil biz from exploration/refining/marketing/transportation/dispensing etc. They and their bosses won't go quietly.......(just ask Ross!) :rolleyes:
     
  12. henryr

    henryr Two Time F1 World Champ
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    refineries produce more than gas.....

    the grid and electrical supply does not exist to provide for 100% electric cars today let alone his future vision

    his view that fractional ownership is a thing of the future is correct as it is happening across industries. either out of convenience or the sorry state of the middle and lower class. ala rent to own
     
  13. donv

    donv Two Time F1 World Champ
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    It's not going to make oil, or oil companies obsolete... where do you think electricity comes from?
     
  14. LamboLover

    LamboLover F1 Rookie

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    You're right, that is an oversight on my part.

    Still, with 253 million vehicles on the road to be replaced by pods that likely won't consume anywhere near the same resources, you don't think oil companies will push against them? These sort of companies already push against people using solar panels on their homes in certain states like Florida & Nevada where they reportedly charged those with panels extra, to the point where they weren't saving any money.
     
  15. Tcar

    Tcar F1 Rookie

    And plastics...
     
  16. Countachqv

    Countachqv Formula 3

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    govs will push people to make that choice. The only way not to ban cars in the future is to control population and resources, which the world has been lousy at doing because the entrie economic model is base of the population groth pyramid scheme.

    look at the Paris socialist/communist maire progressivly banning cars in the city with disregard to the people who go to work. the trains are breaking down all the time now there and are overcrowded. but people take it.
    As long as people will take this, it will move forward. I have no doubt europe is doomed as the gov is overpowering over there. Not so sure in the USA althought the milenials have a disdain for any manual labor of any kind and any stress.
     
  17. carguyjohn350

    carguyjohn350 F1 Rookie
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    Transportation modules sound fine in large cities, but for anything rural, and large parts of the American West is still largely that way, I find this to be a looong way off. Additionally, I refuse to believe that people who can afford to own a car will be happy with a mass use module. Has anyone been on a bus recently? Do you want to ride in a module that has been used by the general public?
     
  18. Countachqv

    Countachqv Formula 3

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    What you need to consider is the new mindset of millenials and coming generation. They dont think in terms of ownership. they do not want it.
    for them life is about shared resources and stress free, social communities and carefree lives. that is why ownership of anything is doomed moving forward unless mentalities of the young people changes.
    Most of us who are 45 and above have seen true hardships of our parents and grand parent. Building lives from nothing.
    Today anyone from the 30s and before has had a very different life, connected, easier on the practical level but more stressful in the virtual world they created and they live for.
    How many of you know 20 to 25 years old who know how to plant tomatoes or potatoes or do gardening. many do beleive in multiple realities...Car fixing is a foreign concept for most. They cant deal with anything breaking down.

    I just saw a guy who never cut grass in his life!. He has no clue on how to ride a lawn mower. This is the new gen that will kill the cars and home ownership the same way horse riding got killed. Car collection will be for the few elite at great costs. tha is my opinion
     
  19. gtjoey

    gtjoey Formula Junior

    Aug 12, 2014
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    Guys, Ive said this 5 years ago, we had a meeting at Amelia Island with the biggest world producers,they said in ten years 80 percent of all the regular cars will be electric on the road.
    The old timers with Packards laughed and the rest agreed.
    When VW /BMW and Porsche BLOW away everything gasoline next year with a wall plug and 600 mile range, the gasoline engine is done.
    We will be the last though, Shell already can mail you gas, so stock up.
    I want the vw bus all electric, hey man I'm going back to my youth, Peace out.
    GTJOEY1314
     
  20. Countachqv

    Countachqv Formula 3

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    Hey Joey, when you checkin in the nursing home in old age, let me know where you go, i'll check in too and we'll share stories about how great life was when we were free of spy cameras, body scanners like they'll put in china to identify people, conversation listeners in public and shared modules which will drive you to the registration center to pay for you Id implant replacement.
     
  21. gtjoey

    gtjoey Formula Junior

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    They already did, its called YOUR I PHONE...........
     
  22. PaulK

    PaulK F1 Rookie
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    Queuing up "Little Red Barchetta" for this thread...
     
  23. LightGuy

    LightGuy Three Time F1 World Champ
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    When they stopped producing Colt Thompson submachine guns early 30's they were worth a couple of hundred.
    After the 1934 tax stamp act they more than doubled.
    Prior to the 1986 manufacture ban they were worth about $8,000.
    Stupid money at the time.
    Today a mint Colt Thompson is worth well above 50K.
     
  24. ross

    ross Three Time F1 World Champ
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    you guys evidently dont know much about where you get all the synthetic products in your lives.
    you are also thinking of everything from an american perspective - the transportation world outside of the oecd is not going electric anytime soon.
     
    carguyjohn350 likes this.
  25. Atlanta355

    Atlanta355 Karting

    Jun 7, 2008
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    With all the potential increase in electric cars who is going to supply? I noticed Shell are now going to put charging points in some gas stations in Europe. Surely a large opportunity is there for the oil majors to also supply charging? Or are the electric utilities going to move into this game?

    Just was at the Audi dealer looking to upgrade my A4, the new one has so much more tech than my 2012 model it felt like an electric car already. Zero point in me buying it as it is essentially the same car as a 2012 with more useless electronics that I would never use. If I were leasing I wouldn't care but as a cash buyer no way. I am thinking cars are going to get more disposable as the tech content goes up.
     

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