Monterey/ Pebble Beach auction thread

Not likely to move back up to new highs in car prices any time soon so I disagree. you now have a wall of supply on any uptick, something we have not had in the last 2-3 years which more more a buy the dip attitude. This wall of supply will come from speculators that got in too late are are now an overhang on the market waiting to sell on any uptick to try and get closer to whole, and many dealers basically in the same position. I don't expect a crash from these prices but we are structurally in a position that new highs for 95% + of cars is unlikely in next few years.

 

Thanks Mrpbody44, I'm not so sure I'd want to daily drive one either but as a fun blast to drive around its tough to beat!

What NYC123 says above seems pretty reasonable to me. I also think the market for any of these cars is not super deep and a decent number of those who wanted these cars may have bought them (I don't think its only speculators who bought). So that means demand will be a little bit lower as some of it is already satisfied. I guess we will have to wait and see- should be interesting!

 

Very special, rare cars will continue to do well. If I had a billion dollars and that special Alfa, Bugatti, or Ferrari that I've always wanted finally came to market, I'd go for it! I'd likely have to pay more than I thought reasonable because 2-3 other guys with a ton of money would feel the same way and everybody would be concerned that said car will never come back to market in their lifetime.

For more run of the mill cars, and this includes cars well into the seven figures, I think the change in psychology on the demand side could be as important as the supply overhang NYC123 was referring to. The idea that prices are bound to keep going up quickly was an important factor that drove demand not only for the so called speculators but also for genuine enthusiasts who felt compelled to go ahead and finally buy that car they've always loved before it was made unaffordable by the inevitable rise in prices (it was also easier to get one's spouse on board - "It's a great investment!"). Once the idea that prices can only go one way, that classic cars are a sure bet is challenged or invalidated the demand dynamics could change significantly.

Having said that, if you bought cars that you always loved and plan to keep them for a while, if you stayed within your means, do you really care isf prices are down 20-30%? Having just come back from an awesome drive on some twisty roads, I don't. If anything, prices coming down could possibly allow me to buy a racing version of the same car. That'd be sweet...

 

Now we're talking!

 

Agreed. On the point of money. I think it is too late to save the fiat currency that the global economy is operating on now. There is just way too much debt issued by governments and held by banks (sovereign and corporate) and central banks. We are in a debt roach-trap where we will never get out. It's joke that the Fed keeps saying they will raise rates. They are having over $4T in paper on their balance sheet. If they raise the interest rates back to the pre-crisis levels of 4 to 5% for 10yrTs then the underlying basis of their assets will drop like a rock wiping away its equity. By raising interest rates they will make themselves insolvent. Also the US government debt is 20T. 5% on that would bankrupt the country. Low interest rates are here to stay for a long long time.

 

Equity? Do central banks care about or even measure their own equity. No expert but I think that's part of the point of a central bank. I do agree, though, that rates aren't going to 4-5% anytime soon...

 

Great engine but it's a sports tourer. I think the misconception IMHO is the 275 is much better handling. I drove a Lusso, 275 GTB and a 250 Cab all back to back. They were all pretty similar dynamically. I expected the 275 to be way better. I went for the 250 Cab as if I'm not going to be throwing it around I might as well have the top down (also the overdrive is great so you don't have the gearing issue). Agree on the Afla's - I have a GTA for zipping around the lanes - 250 way better for a drive down to the south of France though...

 

Very nice Bob!

As to the low rates mentioned above by FarEastFerrari and others, you all are probably more expert than I am but a friend who I think really would qualify as an expert in these matters has insisted for years on what you said is true and he hasn't changed his opinion. It also makes sense to me. I think anything can happen, but I think you have the most likely scenario.

 

I think a major thing that is being passed over is

Monterey had low attendance. Just low attendance everywhere. Most especially thursday and friday. It wasn't really until saturday that people showed up. Resteraunts were easy to get into for large parties. I knew probably 10 guys alone that didn't come this year because they were just "skipping" they had been there for the last 10 years straight or what have you and needed a break. Many quoted children needing to get checked into college. While people can say this happens every year... if the average buyers age now has college kids... then this is an absolute factor.

Then we have RM having 50 less cars this year than last year due to construction.

Also, every single one of my cars sold post block. All of my friends cars sold post block. Between myself and just one other person I can account for 7 figures worth of additional sales.

It may not be bad as initially thought.

On friday I was ready to stick a fork in the market... On saturday my view was... everything is still going.

Being there on the ground as well as a buyer and a consignor... you see many many more angles than just data. (not that the data can be ignored)

 

What cars did you sell there and at what sales?

I was there from Tuesday and I thought it was pretty darn crowded every day.

FWIW, I don't think that the market is tanking at all. What I see happening is that buyers are getting smart. They see they have choices and don't have to buy a medium car when they can go buy a spectacular one instead for a reasonable differential. There is no "panic buying" any more where people make the mistake of buying a lesser car because they're afraid of being priced out of the market or other silly things like that.

Again, if you're an enthusiast and you're buying a great car, it's hard to go wrong. The one thing about high prices is that they pry the best examples loose.

 

Very well stated. I agree.

 

I had cars at Mecum, Bonhams and russo (ya ya ya I know)


I have only been going the last 4 years and the last 4 years have been busier and busier this year it fell off crowd wise. Saturday was the only time mecum felt busy. Friday was a ghost town.

I got absolute top dollar out of my XXX,XXX cars.

 

Well that's awesome. Congratulations!

 

I will add one more set of observations. We spent 12 days in Monterey, running cars at the races, attending the auctions, and having a car at Pebble. I agree that some events seemed down on attendance. However, Pebble was crowded as usual. RM and Gooding were well attended. Buyers were present with cash in hand for good cars. However, they were more discerning than in prior years. Not willing to pay crazy prices. We looked at about 75 specific cars and purchased three of the high dollar ones. Other major buyers were also active on great cars. Most of the Riverside Museum cars were in not good condition, which effected the overall RM presentation. Race cars are always hard to sell at auctions, and Monterey proved this once again. The stars this time, were limited production special "personal" vehicles. The Ghia L6.4 at RM blew the old prices away, and set a new value standard for the cars. Bonhams Dual-Ghia went for a new price range. Gooding set a record with their Continental Mark II (it was spectacular, compared to what you usually see and they are very expensive to restore correctly). All in all, I would say the market is healthy, and Ferrari's are stable, with cars that are fairly priced, selling readily. However, I did sense some reluctance with Ferrari buyers to be careful and not buy too soon, if prices should continue to drop.

 

Perhaps featuring one of the highest quality windshields on the planet produced by yours truly helped set that standard ;-)

P.S. Dyke, were you by chance driving or riding in the TAM transporter when I passed it Monday with my roadster on 101 north of Paso Robles ?
I waved and the driver blew the air horn.
I stopped by your set-up at the track on Sunday in hopes of finally making an in-person acquaintance, but was told you were at the Pebble.

 

The car would not get a platinum at an FCA concourse.

For example, there are several things wrong in the engine compartment:

No loom for the ignition wires.
Windshield washer bag on the wrong side of the battery.
Paper tabs around the ignition wires dear distributor.
Oil hose in wrong place near power steering pump cap.
Short piece of blue tubing at the end of the yellow hose from the electric fuel pump.
Small dent in the front of the air filter box cover.

 

Well put!

I think what we have now is a rational market! Why would anyone assume that the market would stabalise at the high point ticked by a few panic buyers in 2014. It seems natural to me that it would stabilise 20% down from this, which is where we are, with the exeption of a few cars which continue to march on and a few others which were dragged up but people didn't appreciate how common they were so when a load of others came out the woodwork they have normalised at a lower level.

 

Without asking for too many specifics may I ask what sort of cars you sold and also more relevantly why you think they sold post-auction so well rather than at the sales themselves

 

Oh come on Ill be blunt. Post the links, inquiring minds want to know. We would like to share in your happiness!

 

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D
Well said. Timmy, You deserve a big applause from the Fchat community !!!

 

Timo: No, we were in the air on the way home on Monday. Wayne, the truck driver, did not leave until Monday morning, as we had to load the two-car trailer at Pebble Sunday night (he fly's back to pick it up today). He loves Hot Rod's, so he would have spotted you quickly. They told me you came by the truck, but we were spending the day at Pebble. Sorry we did not connect, but it is all so crazy for two weeks.

 

Thanks. Do you have any idea why it attracted such a high bid.

 

I have one and they are very difficult to get to FCA Concours platinum level. Despite that these have been undervalued for some time (note: huge bias as I have one for sale).

 

Honestly... my only GUESS... is that there were just more people on Saturday. Or... people were reluctant to be the first to part with money and the cars and prices seemed to gather steam as time went on. Perhaps the decent results at RM snapped people out of it. Sort of the... no one wants to be the first in the pool at the party... but hey once 2 or 3 people are in... I think this is probably the BIGGEST influence.

I think many sat on their hands predicting a slaughter and at mecum on thursday and friday it pretty much was... then once things started going... people started walking around trying to buy some cars

LOL, Id love to but Im just not really cut that way. Sorry don't mean to be a tease... I just wanted to provide my perspective but not really into sharing the details. I know I know...

 

There are a few other detail issues that would be dinged at a concours, but I'm not going to nitpick on what otherwise seems to be a very nice car. What seems to be a very odd choice in the restoration, however, is that the rocker panels look like they are painted black (or maybe it's just shadows, but they look black in all the photos).