Sheehan nailed this market cycle!

interesting to see what this one bids to.

Ferrari Testarossa TR | eBay

 

Sean, you know mileage vs condition are 2 different things. Ebay to me is not a very good benchmark for pricing an exotic car. Ebay is a marketing tool.

I don't care much about pricing as I don't invest in cars, but as in any market there is always a pullback after a dramatic rise and it is healthy.

Sheehan sent out his news letter looking for a nice driver BBi a few weeks ago. Most of these so called experts are usualy selfserving. Remember at the end of the day they are car salepeople.

My car is almost back together after doing alot of work, hoping to reach out to the local Boxer owners for a get together.

Enjoy the car, not the sale.

 

Yeah I know Sheehan is self serving, and his comments on the market as people say is 20/20 hindsight, but that hindsight is not wrong, it is just not precient.

Sheehan is also the guy who more than once said that boxers were sale proof for years ago. He is also the guy who has been pushing the artificial era barriers of ezo era, fiat era etc, basicaly trying to create imo a limited stock of classic ferraris because evrything ending with with Enzos control of the company is by this theory lesser..

Cracks started to show in this theory when F40s and 288s became a thing, clearly "fiat" era. Instead the market is logicaly moving to classic style ferraris or in my nomenclature Enzo inspired cars, ie those before the 550 and 360 which were the first real Luca mass produced easy anybody can to drive cars if you will.

We all agree a pullback is healthy, and most of us seem to agree its happening, although some deny the scale of it, 20-30% depending on car. Just because there is a pullback does not mean that some cars may not appreciate. For example Glass 308s and Boxers could have some mileage in them, because they lagged the intial growth and now "collectors" are relizing what enthusiasts always new.

However from my price insight of actual sales good orig paint no significant needs 512 boxers( they all need something) peaked around 400k late 14 early 15. Yes we saw a celeb owner cars(which was so so restored) hit 400K earleir this year, but imo 512 boxer prices are 300-350K now, and maybe another 50k will be knocked off that figure by next year, who knows.

Yes fleabay is no real guide, just as many auction results are anmolous. However not every car on fdleabay is a dog, and you can get a sense of these cars(on average) by regularily looking at specific models on fleabay. Two points of datta, even dogs had huge asks, now they dont, and you can see bids on fleabay. these days cars with realistic asks attract multiple bids(not single dealer bids) and yous tart to geta sense of where prices are going.

When I see the same cars lited with no bids for months in a row that tells me something. When a see a new car listed low enough to attract bids and those bids stall out lower than where people though prices were it tells me something.

the Tr I referenced, based on the photos looks really clean, for example the drivers seat, and engine metal, the miles are also really low. Of course its not "resale red" which may work against it, still lets see if this car breaks 100k and if so by how much, a 4k mile car is a 4k mile car.

I also know that the delaer who were bugging me earlier this year and late last year stopped calling.

At 50k Trs were way to cheap, and at 125k so were boxers. Now we are maybe settling down to double those prices, which is 30 odd percent below peak.

Same thing over at CT land, 25 annivs with low mileage back into the 200k range. Yaeh a periscopo might still be a a near 1 mill car, lest see what one goes for, but whats the price of a really good DD? No one knows today.

308s GTSis which are dogs people thought were 85k Ill bet they are back to below 50k, yeah they used to be 35K.

yes condition is everything, and that can explain why two similar year cars sell at a 20% delta, but thats taken into account.

 

His article is interesting but to me it doesn't prove anything. What were the auction prices from only 12 or 24 months BEFORE the summer of 2014? I would say that the prices were much LOWER than they are in 2016 for the cars that are selling in the auctions now. We can say there was a spike/rise of pricing in 2014 for Enzo era cars. However looking at a CAGR of pricing from the past 60 months, the prices are still increasing on average more than 10% per year. In 2012 you could buy a 330 GTC for mid 300K. Would you be able to find a great running example for anywhere double this amount? He also says something I dont agree with. Enzo era cars will no longer have appeal to any future generation of buyers because their average SUV performs better? Give me a break seriously. This argument is totally stupid. The performance of an average SUV hasn't changed much in the past 24 months! Did I buy my collection of Enzo era cars because they were great performing cars? My 1995 BMW M3 that I owned 20 years ago would destroy any Enzo car on the track. I bought them for their beauty, aesthetics, rarity and their relative performance to their peers of their age. They were all hand built by artisans not by computer driven robots. I dont believe I am a unique collector. I believe most collectors would have similar views.

 

56,700 23 hrs to go

 

Exactly. The main place that these cars are moving are the auctions. And that has been the case since the beginning of this balloon. As soon as they move into private owner classifieds or dealers, they sit, sit, sit and wait for more upward movement by way of the hype-man auctioneers. You gotta love a market where the longer a car sits unsold at a dealer, the higher the price goes. Makes perfect sense LOL.

Take away the big fish-bowls of greed on display at the auctions and all you have left is a failed ponzi scheme.

 

Earlier in this thread there was a discussion of whether we tend to only like the cars of our youth. I might be an exception but I get weak in the knees looking at this car even though it was made quarter of a century before I was born: 1948 Maserati 4CLT | eBay . Now, if faced with the choice of this or an F40 I might still go for an F40 but I do love it...

 

$ 86100 24 bids, 1.5 hrs to go.

Yeah I know fleabay is just an advertising billboard, but it says something.

 

That car has been for sale for well over a year. They can't give it away. It was mentioned in an earlier thread about a year ago. It didn't pull much money then either.

 

Any ideas why they can't achieve a higher price? Just down to the colour? Retail price of that car in UK would be maybe 3 times that...

 

Ferrari: Testarossa TR End bid: US $87,100.00 (approximately £61,716.15)

Reserve not met

 

Auctioned ended. Got as far as $87100...

 

I'd figure $87,100 is actually a realistic price. Not surprised at all.

 

Since most TRs are resale red, this one hardly counts.

 

The FED just postponed that correction by at least another quarter by leaving the interest rate unchanged again. Probably indicative of more, they just don't want to be the ones taking the punchbowl away. Kick the can and party on!

 

I liked the car and the color. Curious why you say that price is realistic, is thta just down to color or is there more to it, or is that justa real indicator of Tr prices..

 

I'd say def color. I have/love red, black, blue, silver ferraris and I wld never buy that car

 

This car a year ago would have definitely sold for twice. 87k is just above market for a driver 308 GTSi...

They must be wanting $200/250k or more

 

http://www.ferrarichat.com/forum/ferraris/525848-1992-ferrari-512tr-yellow-over-black.html#post144764189

Former CNC car. 3rd or 4th time it has been flipped. Cannot find a home

https://www.mecum.com/lots/CA0815-225295/

1992 FERRARI 512TR - 190446

 

Sheehan didn't foresee the Brexit? His crystal ball must really be broken.

 

If we enter an increasingly inflationary environment (or God forbid, hyperinflation), Sheehan will be kicking himself for not owning a proper hedge (rare vintage cars) instead of the boring, non-rare newer cars he is now focused on. Clearly now interest rates are going to be low for a really long time. I don't see how that is bad for nominal values of hard assets.

He can be right for now but that doesn't mean he's right later.

I think the demographic argument is a little overblown in the near term while it certainly is a big factor 15-20 years from now.

 

An opinion question though.

What happens to pre-war cars? Do only the true gems continue to command an audience?
I'm 30, and most definitely the exception, so what happens in the next 10-15 years with those cars? I came very close last week to buying a '32 Castagna bodied Lancia Dilambda Sedanca de Ville. Do regular cars guys know, or even care to know about cars like these?

Obviously Bugatti, and blower Bentley and early RR's will withstand the test of time. But what happens to the Alvis? Dusenburg? Cord? Packard? And early Cadillac? Do they sit in museums? What demographic is going to buy cars like these in the next 20 years?

 

Not sold at $125K... The fact that the bidding didn't get anywhere near the anticipated range is telling. Folks are bidding assuming that the market is falling and consequently aren't willing to buy at what the seller considers a reasonable price..

 

Barrett Jackson North East - Ferrari Results on this link Northeast 2016 - Collector Cars Docket - All Days

 

There is still interest in the grand pre-war classics but the others take a particular type of buyer to make the trade work. As an example, Mercedes 500/540K have sold in tiny quantities at very smal prices, Bonhams offered 6 at their Stuttgart sale this year and sold none. The truly rare is where the money is, for example the average 500K Cabriolet C has never been sexy and hasn't been a million dollar car traditionally so doesn't vary in price all that much but a car like a Special Roadster will show a wide disparity between the best and the worst and may still get $10 milion but in today's market it will take a motivated seller to get it done. RM struggled to sell their Special Roadster at Arizona in January and it will be fascinating to see the trends in Monterey 2016.

The other marques you have named are the same with a few Duesenberg's worth $5 million plus and a whole lot below $1 million, appealing to different markets. As for demographics I see an analogy with vinyl records which have been replaced by Casette tapes, CD's, MP3's etc and yet a lot of young people will pay a lot to buy a good old vinyl record. I see no reason why younger collectors wont still buy the very best of vintage and veteran automobiles, the rest might have to drop in price to the point where they become saleable......... What does anyone else think?