is the bubble due to burst?

We can add to that Bloomberg recomending Audi 100 coupes from the mid 70's as the next investment car. Or AOL recomending the new camaro Zl1 as an investment car.
I can think of the totaly rusted through dino(the entire front end was gone) selling for over 300k or the 650K 599stick as examples of people who know nothing "investing" on check list.

When "investors" get involved you know its a market that will keep getting bid up, till steam is depleted, then its only a question of how it ends, a reasonable defation back to reality or a bang.


Its been a great party for dealers, lots of cars and marques that were not "investment grade" became so. This, massivly expanded avialable inventory. Of course the music ends, then the crowd will move on to their next thing to bid up.

I wouldnt say the bubble has burst or will burst, its deflating which is healthy, how far it will deflate and for how long hard to say, but the car market seems to go in 10-15 year cycles. Amercan muscle hasnt recovered since it got shilled and bid up in 2000-07.

But on the positive lots of cars got restored and saved, and for some of us, the one that got away is probably coming back into affordable range. So prices may settle at somewhere 2x their 2011 lows, but 30-50% off their imagined peak.

 

Buy what you like. Spend no more than you can afford. You'll never go wrong.

 

Exactly. Buy things that you want to own, not the things you expect will appreciate.
As for previous bubbles, the moment is when people that normally were not interested start giving you investment advice. That is when you have to watch out. In my case that has not happened yet.

 

Yes whats positive about this is many cars have had big money put in them, there will be some great buys after the dust settles.

 

Think about what the value of 'money' will be in 20 years and one would be crazy not to move into real assets like income property, rare collectables and other hard assets. If you are young enough to have a 10 to 20 year horizon, don't worry about short term down turns in pricing or any 'crashes'. Any valuable collectable will only appreciate in value because 'money' is guaranteed to be inflated away by the policies of central bankers. I heard that the US Dollar probably has less than 5% purchasing power from 80 years ago. The only person who should worry are the people who are facing a short term liquidity crunch due to them erroneously thinking that prices rise forever and levered up to the hilt to buy cars. Over time all prices will rise because the central bankers are printing tons of currency.

 

This video is from November 2010. It is glorious.

PLEASE NOTE: POSTED FOR AMUSEMENT PURPOSES ONLY.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PTUY16CkS-k

 

One word: Deflation

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PSxihhBzCjk

 

06/27/2016
275GTB/4 $3.6 million sale pending
1967 Ferrari 275 GTB/4 | DriverSource : Fine Motorcars | Houston, TX
Quality cars = $$$$

 

If we're in the beginning stages of a recession, and not just an over reaction to brexit, how long does it take, historically, for the collector car market to follow suit?

 

past 2 trading days have put a dent in toy sales....

 

Facts or speculation?

 

facts are lagging indicators

 

I don't see the withdrawal of the UK as a negative event, on the contrary it is one major western country saved from socialism and the handicap of having to support a clutch of loser countries such as Greece and Italy (sorry Ferrari, Italy is a loser country) and absorb a bunch of unwashed and uneducated immigrants with their anachronistic (to be extremely correct) cultures and beliefs. The UK will do better as part of the global trade community rather than the geriatric "socialist club" that is the EU.

What would really hurt the USA is the election of Hillary and then the possibility of TEXIT, along with the implementation of more "do good" policies and the imposition of more "fair share" taxes.

Ferraris are not a reliable store of value in bad times. They are merely a place to put money when the alternatives are looking shaky ie there is weak confidence in the economy and an unwillingness to invest in productive assets. But when the big shake comes the only things that matter are productive land, precious metals, useful tools including reliable cheap transportation, and certain commodities such as fuel and ammunition.

 

The English keep complaining specifically about the 200-300k Polish immigrants they've gotten. I've only met Polish immigrants in the U.S. and they are anything but "unwashed", "uneducated" and "anachronistic". Pretty solid and hard working if you ask me...

We'll see how Brexit goes. It seems that the best the U.K. can hope for is a deal like that of Norway - they get access to the common market in return for accepting E.U. regulations, free movement of labor and contributions to E.U. funds that on per capita basis are comparable to those of the U.K. So they accept euro socialism, fund it, and have no say. Doesn't sound like much of an upgrade for the U.K. and deprives the E.U. of a British deterrent to its worst instincts. I think it's bad for all involved...

 

Nice car and congrats on the sale. But we don't know the price. She was at Bonhams only 3 months ago with a $2.7-$3.2m estimate, not sold.

 

I just closed out my worst quarter in recent memory. Q2 is usually slow but not that slow. Not cars, but fine sporting guns. I have noticed, over the years, that when my market dries up the economic statistics that follow are usually bleak as well. Makes sense as these items, like Ferraris, are very much a discretionary "feeling flush" purchase.

So for what it's worth, based on my "leading indicator", US economy is slowing and may go into recession. I see already that May housing (if I recall it was existing home sales) is way off.

This does not say anything about the rest of the world, except to the extent that US exports are slow when world is slow. I do see the EU as a loser and UK as a winner, as posted above. Not sure about Far East ... China is the driver and that situation is opaque. I hear things are not going so well over there though.

Bottom line if you have been holding out for a better price, don't hold on too long. Summer is almost over ...

Next question, where to invest the proceeds ... stocks? maybe but earnings are slowing. bonds? nope too much inflation risk. precious metals? yes if you think the paper currencies are unraveling. real estate? not now except perhaps in New Zealand

 

fine sporting guns..... ???????? do tell

 

FWIW, Tom Shaughnessy told me many years ago, he thought vintage Ferraris pricing follows real estate, particularly in California. When real estate goes into the dumper, Ferraris are not far behind.

 

Brits are not happy with the Poles because they are taking over most of the jobs in construction business, very well skilled and with much better work ethics then the "entitled" locals.

 

How do you define a "socialist" country?
UK provides free healthcare and Jobseeker's Allowance, isn't that socialist?
UK has many of the most powerful unions in the world, isn't that socialist?

The Financial heart of London didn't vote for brexit, are they socialist?

Do you know that most of the pro-brexit votes came from "uneducated" people, as you call them, many of them immigrants?

Greece GDP (2013) $242 Billions

Italy GDP (2013) $2,149 Billions

Do you really believe that the two countries are comparable?

Do you know that Italy gives EU more money than it takes (€17 Billions vs. €9 Billions in 2014)? Is Europe supporting us?

I really find your opinions a little geriatric and superficial (to be extremely correct). You simply don't know what are you chatting about.

 

Socialism is simple to define. Any country that taxes the productive people heavily and "redistributes the wealth" through do-good programs and direct "transfer" payments to the non-productive people is socialist. Any country where the government owns some or all of the means of production is socialist. Any country where the government closely controls the activities of the private sector "for the common good" is socialist. Yes the UK has that disease but not as bad as many of the other European countries. And it is trending away from that ideology. It has nothing to do with the size of the country or whether there are unions in the country.

Are you saying Italy is a vital solvent country? Or that the PD is a capitalist or even centrist party? Or that ENI and ENEL are controlled by the private sector? OR that govt spending is not bigger than private spending in that country?

I was not talking about Poles. I was talking about Syrians.

 

Interesting! California real estate seems to be doing just fine at the moment.

 

That just shows how you should not listen to such wisdoms, as they are far too generic. If you had sold your Ferrari following the 2008 market crash and RE slump, you would not be happy now that you did, would you?

 

Ignore this guy, he is clearly a parody! Selling guns so the Brits can be protected from the Syrians, this is this guys "do good platform". Listen trul, take your bigot mind set elsewhere! As a resident of a FORMER empire that has pillaged countries for centuries and then made sure whomever it rules got poorer by the day - you of all people should be honoured to be included in the EU.

But I am speaking to a gun salesmen... Need I say more.

Elad