Bonhams at Goodwood,Sat 12th Sept. | Page 3 | FerrariChat

Bonhams at Goodwood,Sat 12th Sept.

Discussion in 'Vintage Ferrari Market' started by richardson michael, Sep 8, 2015.

This site may earn a commission from merchant affiliate links, including eBay, Amazon, Skimlinks, and others.

  1. DAYTONASME

    DAYTONASME Formula Junior

    Jan 12, 2007
    646
    Manchester UK
    Full Name:
    DAYTONASME
    200% agree Timothy - Bonhams presented some excellent cars in their "Revival marquee" which will be offered at their December sale...

    - the Arthur Carter collection of Connaught A-type and Austin Healey 100M

    - a LHD 250 PF Cabriolet from long-term, UK ownership

    - a 300SL Gullwing from extremely long-term ownership, and previously displayed atop the Mercedes Benz Goodwood FOS sculpture.

    E
     
  2. Super_Dave

    Super_Dave Formula Junior

    Oct 6, 2014
    710
    USA
    Full Name:
    Dave
    You can do this pretty simply.

    Take the old MSRP of any car (for consistency, use a single currency in UK or US) and then just ballpark it with simple math: 1.03^x with x = the number of years since that date. That will give you an approximation. 3% is being pretty aggressive overall.

    That said, the logic is a bit tough to justify as a good comparison for the following reasons:

    1.) cars are, in adjusted terms, highly deflationary, regardless of what the simple inflation math says. Why? Because what a basic car can do today is light years ahead, on a functional and performance basis, what a basic car could do 25+ years ago. All the extra content (for better or worse) gets sold today at a lower or equal price relative to typical wages, so applying a basic inflation figure is misleading.

    2.) cars are depreciating assets in almost all cases historically, except for extremely rare examples. In certain periods we see run ups, but this is the exception, even for Ferraris and particularly as Ferraris became more mass produced than boutique. In other cases of very rare cars, they of course don't trade anywhere near inflation.

    3.) few people would make a decision to buy / not buy based on inflation. Very few will cross-shop a 458 Speciale against a 197X Ferrari, unless they are looking purely and exclusively for adding to a collection.

    4.) mileage makes a huge difference, unfortunately. While I personally don't like the approach, keeping ultra ultra low mileage is akin to keeping a toy in its box... it dramatically changes the rarity of the car since (thankfully) so few people would do that, particularly with "mass market" models like a 3x8. All the sensible criticisms, including dried out internals etc, go out the door and it becomes a truly exception car from a rarity perspective.


    Normally I wouldn't rely on wikipedia for anything but I'm not going to dig around on the US MSRP for a testarossa and so will go off the $180k number i found (believe from R&T). That would put its inflation adjusted figure at around $380k @ 3% inflation and ~$300k @ 2%. In GBP due to different FX trajectory over time, the relative value appreciation is different but you can assume the markets overall today will support somewhat similar values (I didn't check to see how the original MSRP across UK vs. US compares to an FX-adjusted price).

    Overall, all this suggests to me is that the modern Ferraris of similar status are around the same price and have moved up roughly with inflation over that time frame. I would not read any more into it than that.

    In terms of modern era cars, the ones likely to justify above-inflation growth over (long) periods of time are the ones that are now somewhat closer to what Ferrari would have been 60-70+ years ago. If I had the funds, and wanted to invest (and have fun) something like the SCG would be compelling. Pagani and Koenigsegg look interesting too, though without the motorsport heritage, they need to really execute over the long-term so they don't fall by the wayside.
     
  3. Bradwilliams

    Bradwilliams F1 Veteran
    Silver Subscribed

    #53 Bradwilliams, Sep 16, 2015
    Last edited: Sep 16, 2015
    Mileage only matters when the bubble is in effect. If you look into a typical market (any classifieds in the past other than the past few years and 1989), the "museum" cars with little to no miles only pull a slightly higher premium. And there are hardly any for sale because of that reason (they are speculative cars by nature). Especially on the high production cars. Once the bubble is done deflating, the garage queen status will no longer carry the same weight. The price spreads on this stuff as of late is so large and ludicrous, and should have been another warning flag to many. The spread will shrink tremendously
     
  4. Super_Dave

    Super_Dave Formula Junior

    Oct 6, 2014
    710
    USA
    Full Name:
    Dave
    I don't doubt or deny that at all. Just speaking to the relative rarity. In bubble times any excuse for rare is "meaningful".

    Still think the most amusing logic is manual transmission cars that clearly were not preferred by new buyers (and so sold in low volumes) and now "preferred" by buyers because of rarity.

    It would be the same logic as an out of favor color and options combo for a car becoming the most valuable due to rarity, vs. a widely appreciated / favored color, because no-one bought the less appealing car. Talk about circular logic!

    Maybe someone should custom order a Ferrari with a fiat 500 engine and call it the Ferrari "molto lento" and then in 20 years it will be worth a fortune...
     
  5. mdw3

    mdw3 Karting

    Jan 2, 2005
    194
    Los Angeles, CA
    Full Name:
    Michael
    Maybe you two guys should just have a thread all to yourselves titled "the society for mutual admiration of bubble analysts?"

    Seriously, though, I think you miss the motivation and basis of many serious areas of collecting when you ridicule the preferences of collectors towards previously unloved and unpopular models. Indeed, entire areas of connoisseurship, for example in wristwatches, are based on similar logic and history, and always have been. Vintage Rolex models that have led the markets for decades (such as the vaunted Daytona "Paul Newman") were legendarily slow sellers when new, and often sat with original retailers unsold for years.
     
  6. BIRA

    BIRA Formula Junior

    Jun 15, 2007
    950
    Sure a lot of people would like , and me first, classic cars to get much cheaper so I can buy cars that are no longer affordable. I cannot even buy back cars I sold...but I have been priced out of Van Ghogh, Rembrand, Vermeer and Leonardo da Vinci some times ago too.

    So we have to accept that some of the things are out of reach, at least for you and me, maybe not others,,,but we have penicillin and iPhones , the previous generations had Bugattis and could buy GTOs at the price of used cars...
    Also at some time taste change and priorities too,,,not everyone can do a deal at yesterday's price,,specially if prices have gone up.

    Incidentally, as we have seen for real estate, when prices go down,,people don't buy either because they expect prices will go further down,,only when they rebound people are jumping in.

    Conclusion let's forget the prices, buy cars if we can afford and we like them, and use them, and sell hem if we want to buy more or exchange for others if we want to have different sensations. Not a bad feeling!!
     
  7. Bradwilliams

    Bradwilliams F1 Veteran
    Silver Subscribed

    #57 Bradwilliams, Sep 16, 2015
    Last edited by a moderator: Sep 7, 2017
    Doing nothing of the sort, and buying up a bunch of cars in order to make a profit does not make you a connoisseur. These aren't collectors, they're greedy sheep. If they weren't, then they would have already owned the cars years and years ago. Also, most of the "previously unloved" cars have been for sale for almost 6 months now with no takers.
    Image Unavailable, Please Login
     
  8. SGTS

    SGTS Rookie

    Sep 27, 2013
    49
    From the catalogue description, he ordered it over a year before taking delivery, so he would probably have paid list. But you're probably still right that he lost (especially if you consider opportunity cost if he'd put the list price into the London property market. of 1988/89...)
     
  9. Super_Dave

    Super_Dave Formula Junior

    Oct 6, 2014
    710
    USA
    Full Name:
    Dave
    And how am I ridiculing those preferences exactly?

    Please point it out to me -- I'm a bit dense. I love all of these cars (some more than others) and have followed the brand for decades.

    You seem hurt by criticism or assessment of the current bubble behavior. I guess that I should instead cheer and applaud those who say prices will be XX% higher in a year, so better to buy now? That way I add fuel to this great and wondrous fire. Or those that argue that somehow there has been a renaissance in appreciation for cars now, that didn't exist 3 years ago. No, wait... that wouldn't make sense... because enthusiasts are the ones buying now, as in the past (one presumes we didn't have some widespread conversion of people into car lovers unless it propagated itself in some viral fashion?) No, no... clearly it is because of some new or renewed vigor for paying more money for cars (same cars as existed 3 years ago, or 5 years ago btw). I am pretty sure Ferrari as a brand was pretty well known a few years ago. I also recall in the late 80s when some of these cars were selling at around $25mm (inflation adjusted) before dropping down to around $5m (also inflation-adjusted) a couple years later, so I presume people were aware of the collectible nature of cars in the past too?

    Wait. Now I understand, it is because today people want to pay more money for cars than a few years ago (a lot more).

    It has nothing to do with the "potential" for excessive risk seeking, speculative behavior etc. due to unnaturally low interest rates that all central bankers are being kept awake at night worrying about right now.

    I see.
     
  10. mdw3

    mdw3 Karting

    Jan 2, 2005
    194
    Los Angeles, CA
    Full Name:
    Michael
    You said:

    "It would be the same logic as an out of favor color and options combo for a car becoming the most valuable due to rarity, vs. a widely appreciated / favored color, because no-one bought the less appealing car. Talk about circular logic!"

    That is exactly what you are doing in this statement, ridiculing the preferences of collectors for the previously unpopular or "less appealing" version. Which is often the preference of later collectors, in case you were unaware of how collecting works. Hence my example of the Rolex "Paul Newman" Daytona, in case you thought that the car market works in a vacuum and without parallel in the many other collectibles markets.

    And nothing I have said indicated that I was in any way "hurt" by your insightful and constant commentary on this board (or at least in this thread). I frankly don't care whether prices go up more or don't, I have what I want at this point. And, you will be wrong in your analysis, until you are right. Even a broken clock is right twice a day, and I am sure if you say the same thing long enough it will eventually coincide with reality. Such is the way of markets, they are always changing and nothing goes one way forever.
     
  11. Bradwilliams

    Bradwilliams F1 Veteran
    Silver Subscribed

    #61 Bradwilliams, Sep 17, 2015
    Last edited: Sep 17, 2015
    That's not what he is stating. He is merely pointing out circular logic. Like many, you choose to take it as a personal attack on the hobby which it isn't. Buying a vomit colored Ferrari and then turning around and calling it rare to draw attention to it to reel in a naive buyer does not make you a man of distinctive taste or "ahead of the curve". Also, the reason most of the previously unloved cars are now "today's winners" has nothing to do with their merit, collectibility, or reputation amongst actual enthusiasts. They were simply "marked" by the greedy speculators because they were inexpensive when compared to many other models. Ripe for the picking, easy to accumulate with virtually unlimited lines of credit. They saw the dinos and the vintage models surge, so they pounced to make a quick buck. One can argue until eternity as to why these cars flew up in value so quick. All of the theories have been spewed out on here at nausea. It's all just noise.
     
  12. mdw3

    mdw3 Karting

    Jan 2, 2005
    194
    Los Angeles, CA
    Full Name:
    Michael
    OK, you're right. I will cease my participation in this discussion now and let you two guys have your own private, self-congratulatory conversation about bubbles and your deep understanding of the collectibles markets.
     
  13. 275gtb6c

    275gtb6c Formula 3
    Silver Subscribed

    Oct 30, 2006
    1,929
    europe
    Full Name:
    oscar
    Hi Michael,

    same here, might even be the same guy :)

    ciao
    Oscar
     
  14. 85886

    85886 Karting

    Feb 22, 2012
    134
    Obviously not all bids below reserve are placed by the auctioneer. These bids are difficult to interpret but still a piece of information.

    Does anybody know what the high bid for the F40 was?
     
  15. Super_Dave

    Super_Dave Formula Junior

    Oct 6, 2014
    710
    USA
    Full Name:
    Dave
    You are so sharp, I can see how you are so successful.

    Your post is actually pretty offensive to imply deceipt... if you could be balanced and just honest in a discussion you would not resort to accusations. I am done talking to you. I expect that is mutual.

    Good day :)
     
  16. PAUL BABER

    PAUL BABER Formula 3

    Nov 1, 2006
    1,062
    London. UK.
    Full Name:
    Paul Baber
    I think an auctioneer's job can be difficult at times. They need to preserve the integrity of the car. I'm not suggesting all bids below the reserve are false but often they run cars up to the reserve so whatever Lot they are selling is not seen to die and maybe thus destroy its reputation.......Yes, very difficult to interpret especially if you are not there.
     
  17. Simon1965

    Simon1965 Formula Junior

    Feb 8, 2011
    268
    HKSAR
    Full Name:
    Simon

    Agree. The shift in market interest is to 80s and 90s stuff. Look at the guide price for a nice std 575 coming to Paris auction in February 2016. Euro 300k!!!
     
  18. 375+

    375+ F1 World Champ
    Silver Subscribed

    Dec 28, 2005
    11,884
    Clearly market momentum has shifted to more recent Ferrari. It will be interesting to see if these cars have legs.
     
  19. Simon1965

    Simon1965 Formula Junior

    Feb 8, 2011
    268
    HKSAR
    Full Name:
    Simon

    Agree. The shift in market interest is to 80s and 90s stuff. Look at the guide price for a nice std 575 coming to Paris auction in February 2016. Euro 300k!!!
     

Share This Page