Did the bottom just drop out of the market? | FerrariChat

Did the bottom just drop out of the market?

Discussion in 'Ferrari Discussion (not model specific)' started by Russ Gould, Aug 21, 2015.

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  1. Russ Gould

    Russ Gould Formula 3

    Nov 8, 2004
    1,073
    Stock exchanges round the globe getting pounded after a year of going sideways ... those who went into Ferraris instead have been smiling ... but at some point the evaporation of a trillion dollars of wealth is going to be felt in luxury goods.

    If there was an icon for "take cover" now would be the right time to invoke it.
     
  2. DrJan

    DrJan Formula Junior

    Feb 28, 2015
    553
    Grand Cayman
    Full Name:
    Dr Jan P
    No, the value of used Ferrari cars seem to still be on the way up.
    Not all buyers are depending on the stock market to live!
     
  3. Mr. V

    Mr. V Formula 3

    Oct 23, 2004
    1,247
    Portland, Oregon
    We'll just wait and see, eh?
     
  4. vrsurgeon

    vrsurgeon F1 World Champ
    Silver Subscribed

    Dec 13, 2009
    15,917
    Charleston, SC
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    Curt
    Be careful with this! :) This time is different right? :)

    When MOST see their retirement funds evaporate, they don't feel too fantastic about a new car. Given there is a lot of institutional investors in the market... in the US a cash account and bonds don't keep up with inflation IMHO.

    I think the term IMHO at this point is Ferrari's WERE on the way up. *hehehe* :)
     
  5. Juan-Manuel Fantango

    Juan-Manuel Fantango F1 World Champ
    Rossa Subscribed

    Jan 18, 2004
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    Juan
    Just missed on the first 308 in North America at auction, something did not feel right, but now regrets. Sold 247. The first 308 in NA, the car that some say saved Ferrari..at least that's what I have heard said or read. But all this said, I wonder how some are thinking now that do depend on the market? I bet the top are not even concerned, you don't spend 8.5 to over 17 as some did unless you are out right wealthy-right? Middle income, could be a problem.
     
  6. DrewH

    DrewH F1 World Champ
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    Nov 4, 2003
    16,803
    Vancouver, BC Canada
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    Andrew
    I think it is way to early to worry about that. Let's see how things play out in the coming weeks.
     
  7. Camlet1

    Camlet1 Formula 3

    May 3, 2014
    2,079
    UK
    If you bought your Ferrari from your heart, you'll shrug off market turmoil because you were lucky enough to enjoy some very special days behind the wheel of a car that billions of people only dream about.

    If you bought your Ferrari from your head, following the market and leveraging yourself in the hope of taking a nice profit, and unless you've a very desirable limited edition model........ooops.
     
  8. Cigarzman

    Cigarzman F1 Veteran
    Owner Rossa Subscribed

    I guess it could have been worse , I could have invested my Ferrari money in the market. Instead I have the car. :)
     
  9. Jana

    Jana F1 Veteran

    Mar 4, 2015
    9,872
    That's exactly what I did. :)
     
  10. 88Testarossa

    88Testarossa Formula 3

    Sep 25, 2012
    2,450
    Annapolis and Daytona Beach
    Full Name:
    Al
    Watch the TR market climb as people take some profit and put it into hard assets

    Recent auction results


    Sent via itty bitty electrons
     
  11. Mr. V

    Mr. V Formula 3

    Oct 23, 2004
    1,247
    Portland, Oregon
    Timing is everything.

    A chunk of the cash I used to buy my Ferrari came from profit realized on the sale of stock.
     
  12. LARRYH

    LARRYH F1 Veteran
    Owner Rossa Subscribed

    Jun 3, 2011
    9,166
    virginia usa
    if the market continues like the past week eventually it will affect the Ferrari market along with many other markets without a doubt.
     
  13. Bradwilliams

    Bradwilliams F1 Veteran
    Silver Subscribed

    I'm currently putting together a potential deal on a sports car (non-vintage). The asking price was pretty far apart from the actual value. Salesman has been a nice guy to work with and reasonable so far. Without going into details, I will say that judging from the way the communication and negotiating has been going, that it feels like it has already shifted to a buyer's market. First time ever that I've had a salesman reach out to me making me offers and fast to the point, close to my offer. I think I'm going to wait it out another month or so. If the bottom does fall out, (which looks likely) then the deals will only get more smoking hot as time progresses. If we go into recession, this stuff is going to be very cheap. Patience :)
     
  14. Timmmmmmmmmmy

    Timmmmmmmmmmy F1 Rookie

    Apr 5, 2010
    2,614
    NZ
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    Timothy Russell
    Minimum 3 different markets at the moment, the high end $10 million + cars that are purchased by billionaires, most of whom do not suffer major loss of wealth from the stock market nor any other form of investing. The middle with the $1 - 10 million cars that will be effected with a lot of speculative money flowing through it. The people investing in some of these cars are either, dealers, middle-men, borrowed money, non end users = all people that will be hurt by any change of the market. This sector will slow and some particular outliers will not recur any time soon but it wont crash and burn. Finally the lower end (less than $1 million cars) which is filled with people with less disposable income, long term owners, 501kers who really will be hurt by any change in the market. Demand in the other 2 markets has driven growth in this sector due to the increase in value flowing down the market. The current fad for $500k '90s Testa Rossa will not last.....
     
  15. proof69

    proof69 Formula 3

    Sep 14, 2014
    1,003

    I agree with your statement about 500k modern day Testa Rossa's.
     
  16. heel&toe

    heel&toe Rookie
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    Jul 29, 2015
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    Alex J
    #16 heel&toe, Aug 23, 2015
    Last edited: Aug 23, 2015
    Please attempt to explain with a degree of fact, What investment/s that billionaires have in their financial portfolio that is NOT affected by as you claim..." billionaires, most of whom do not suffer major loss of wealth from the stock market nor any other form of investing".

    Firstly, the term "major lose" is subjective as per individual.

    Any billionaire's investment portfolio would be diversified as to include BOTH a certain percentage of stock market & real estate holdings.


    Look up any billionaire's wealth and subsequent investments & your unfounded assertion becomes a ludicrous mute point.

    Also the anomaly of a $500,000.00 Testarossa in the most liberal usage of the word, could NOT be considered as a "Fad".
     
  17. Timmmmmmmmmmy

    Timmmmmmmmmmy F1 Rookie

    Apr 5, 2010
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    Timothy Russell
    ok, its all just one mans opinion and if yours is different so be it....
     
  18. au-yt

    au-yt F1 Veteran
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    Aug 13, 2006
    5,834
    Burradoo... Actually
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    Graeme
    The more this happens the more investors look for alternatives.. houses and cars.
    It the new commodities that suffer and if your total wealth is locked in stocks, didn't you learn something last time this happened..... and will happen... again..
     
  19. Super_Dave

    Super_Dave Formula Junior

    Oct 6, 2014
    710
    USA
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    Dave
    Good luck with this investor logic.

    That isn't how it works. Hard to diversify across asset classes (multiple bubbles, some are now truly unraveling) when those asset classes have shared drivers.

    Stock market and RE wealth helped support the car market bubble so it isn't an effective hedge. The next logical step is that the auctions won't just look lackluster, they will start turning down as people are shell shocked by their equity losses. As they turn down, it becomes a vicious cycle with the psychology no longer focused on "the next car" to skyrocket in price, but rather how low cars will go.

    I think it may take 6-12 months still to actually unwind that way, but will depend on how much the market bounces back.
     
  20. bundas

    bundas F1 Veteran
    Owner

    Dec 31, 2005
    7,090
    lexington ky usa
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    mitchell barnes
    An eye open time. Lemmings running hard today. By the day's end close should be ok. Off a little
     
  21. Super_Dave

    Super_Dave Formula Junior

    Oct 6, 2014
    710
    USA
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    Dave
    The sentiment has shifted, dramatically.

    China underpins the growth plans of vast majority of the large cap stocks out there. Income growth in developed world is anemic and you need growth from somewhere to keep profits going higher if you're not getting big productivity gains.

    The actual drop today itself is not that meaningful. What is meaningful is what these moves represent. Chinese markets have massive direct and implied government support and they are still falling. That is meaningful. Would not surprise me if we see another 25%+ decline in Shanghai over the next couple weeks.

    The effects of when China announces growth is more like 5 or 6% rather than 7% will effectively wipe out hundreds of billions of $ of market cap value globally. The market is starting to price in some of this but because of how opaque the Chinese markets / data are, right now it is all guesswork.
     
  22. vrsurgeon

    vrsurgeon F1 World Champ
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    Dec 13, 2009
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    Charleston, SC
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    Curt
    Bingo! "My 401k is up 100% this year so I feel rich.. I'm going to buy that Ferrari I always wanted". People are affect much more by what they "lost" then what they gain. Down is always more painful a motivator. When you need money, you cash in some stocks by hitting the sell button. You don't sell a wheel on your "investment car" to buy groceries for the week.

    This correction has been LONG overdue IMHO... should have happened in 2010 if artificial support wasn't given.
     
  23. Bullfighter

    Bullfighter Two Time F1 World Champ
    Lifetime Rossa Owner

    Jan 26, 2005
    22,367
    Indian Wells, California
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    Jon
    Maybe, although I suspect easy stock market money has helped build the house of cards that is the modern used Ferrari market.

    Hard assets are fine, but a complicated, modern technology-based car is more of a time bomb under your checkbook than an investment.
     
  24. Russ Gould

    Russ Gould Formula 3

    Nov 8, 2004
    1,073
    Well at least it will be a bit cheaper to fill the F car gas tank for a while ...
     
  25. Zaius

    Zaius Formula Junior

    May 8, 2014
    863
    Trillions of dollars of wealth did not evaporate. Paper wealth means nothing.
     

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