328 PRICES ARE FALLING!!!!

+1

 

ya and you couldn't give away a Dino here 20 years ago and now they are worth over 6 figures !.....

 

Boxers are a bad example of any Ferrari market indicator.

In recent years their prices soared artificially and unrealistically high. They're back down to the 70's now and will likely come back down to the 60's, and even 50's, when the dust settles. This is where they were 10 years ago and where they should have always stayed. Having owned one several years ago, I will submit that by no measure are Boxers worth the crazy prices (100K - 125K) they were seeing a year or two ago ---- just my subjective opinion, of course.

The recent "irrational exuberance" over the Boxers was a fad and driven to insanity by speculators. Now, the music has stopped. I believe the same thing has happened with the Dino, and I fully expect their prices to take an even bigger dump soon. The poor economy has little to do with it ---- these cars were / are just dramatically over-priced.

In the case of the Dino, I seriously doubt they will correct all the way back down to the 40's they were trading for 10 years ago. But, I wouldn't at all be surprised to see them settle out near the 60's, or perhaps somewhat lower.

Speculation is always a "zero sum" game --- for everyone who wins big, someone else loses equally big. And, I'm sorry to say that if you recently paid 125K for a Boxer, or 175K for a Dino, you better know when to get out and find yourself a chair, or you are going to lose your butt when the music stops...

 

As for 3x8's gaining huge value down the road, I wouldn't count on it...

Unless they suddenly become collectible ---- either because a bunch of them rapidly disappear or some previously unknown bit of historical significance gets revealed, the price gap between the later V8's (360's and 355's) and the earlier V8's (308's and 328's) seems destined to be maintained. And, the prices of the later cars keep falling which serves to hold the earlier cars down.

I mean really... With the present and historical perception of the 3x8's significance, can you honestly imagine a 328 ever being worth the same as a 360, regardless of whether that common price is 100K or 10K???

Don't get me wrong... I have both a 355 and a 308, and I would love to see my 308 become equal to (or exceed) the value of my 355 . But, I won't be holding my breath for it !

 

Fad and Fashion has a lot to do with values as well. I am 50 and a lot of my older friends 55-75 are really into the car hobby and have been fro a long time. My friends 30-50 not so much. These guys have the $$$ but not the desire or the time. They all work way too much 60-70 hour weeks and travel all the time for work. Will their work week slow down so they can enjoy a family and their car hobby? A few of the younger guys have had some cars but got rid of them due to maintence and never driving them. The economy will come back but what changes in lifestyle will happen it's hard to predict. I think the 308-348 are great usable cars that are a bargain these days but the future is hard to tell.

 

Absolutely and beyond any shadow of doubt.

I can also imagine 246s being worth more than 328s, and I can see Boxers surpassing Testarossas.

 

+1 on that!

 

I'm speaking of overall market values, not special circumstances and abnormal conditions. For 30,000 Euros, I'm sure there was more to that 360's story than the fact that it was Euro spec.

What's your point? I could go wrap my 355 around a tree and make it worth less than my 308, too...

 

I agree with BF, I believe at some point in the future, 308/328 will be worth more than 360, in overall market value, not just some specific examples.

 

That seems a fair comparison to you? The 246 and the Boxer were landmark cars when they were released --- the 328 was merely the last revision / evolution of the 308 line, and the TR was the evolution (mechanically) of the Boxer. Also, the production volumes aren't even close as the 246 and Boxers were made in far fewer numbers ---- rarity nearly always enhances collectability and value.

For the record, the 308 was also a landmark car when it came out. But, there were simply too many made. Too many 355's and 360's are out there as well for rarity to add value. The market is flooded with these cars right now. And, I don't think you'll have to look too hard 10, or even 20, years from now if you want a 308, 328, 355, or 360.

So we are all making different guesses about what will happen in the future. If you want to determine who is wrong and who is right, you'll have to wait a few years.

 

Newman-now look what you have started.

 

Clearly he had no intention of stirring up trouble here.

 

I just got an offer this weekend in the mail for my 88 GTS. Along with my California registration renewal notice was an offer of $600 to retire this 20 year old "polluter." The crusher is calling. Hmm .. $600 large .. kinda tempting in this economy. But maybe I'll think it over.

 

Yes, very fair comparison. The 308/328 were the most significant Ferraris ever made from a production car perspective. They are probably the iconic Ferrari of the modern-ish era, and I know relatively few enthusiasts who don't have some love for those cars. In addition, 308s have been languishing from lack of care for years. They were the "entry level" Ferrari until the recent hit in early 348 prices. Good luck finding a pampered one.

Rarity hasn't been the determining factor of late. There were ~4,000 246s made, IIRC. Absolutely dirt common for the era by exotic car standards. Probably commoner, relatively speaking, than ~7,000 328s were 15 years later. Boxers are scarcer, maybe ~1,200 of them (??), but the 246 GTS is worth the same or more than a comparable Boxer.

In reality, we've always seen older Ferraris command greater prices than newer ones once the newer ones are squeezed of all their depreciation.

Also -- my theory -- 360s and F430s will take another hit when the F450 arrives later this year and obsoletes that body style. 308s and 328s have been out of the "what's new" picture for two decades and will probably benefit as enthusiasts get all wistful for the way things used to be.

 

You mean 6 large? 600 large would be a great deal!

 

The "collector car speculator market" has always amused me...

Unfortunately, it lacks the most important element for keeping things truly interesting and requiring any real guts and commitment...

Specifically, there is no "short" position that can be taken ---- as in the stock market, anyone can screw up a little courage to take a long position (even in a downward market). But, making your "guesses" and having the balls to sell short is what separates the men from the boys (risk-wise, anyway)!

So, how about we make things interesting?

I currently own zero 328's, Boxers, or Dinos. But, I hereby announce my offer to sell (5) Boxers at 125K each, (5) Dinos at 175K each, and (5) 328's at 50K each. And, I'll buy them all back from you in 5 years at then market value.

Any takers? ----- LOL (don't get all agitated folks --- I'm just having a bit of fun)

 

One of the great amusements in life, particularly in the subject area of "investing" seems to be this belief that human life and time is infinite. More to the point, I am soon-to-be 47-years-old; I'm not going to stop driving my 328 and put it in a bubble so that, if there is market appreciation, it'll be worth more in ten years; I might be dead in ten years. Who knows?? Also...while I do believe there is some truth to the supposition that we covet cars today that we grew up coveting, I must also confess that I grew up with the 308 and Boxer, and while I might have a Boxer if I had the financial means, I most certainly would have a 355, and I didn't grow up with those. Maybe I should start investing... ;-)

My best,

Scott

 

Damn, you mean 328/308 prices are not falling, Boxer prices are not falling, Dino prices are not falling, XKE prices are not falling, housing prices in Miami are not falling. Now for the good news; Ferrari parts prices are rising. . .oops that is bad news. Now back to the show.

 

The prices aren't falling, they are being corrected...

 

I stand corrected ;-)

 

I know that a lot of automotive journalists use "corrected" when discussing car valuations. I generally don't feel correction is usually the best word in collector car markets. Unlike traditional markets, collector cars don't have a PE ratio or market cap...a specific car's value is based only on sales of like make/model sales. They may be up or down. Cars are hot or cold...or the whole market can go hot or cold...or a sub-section (muscle cars)...or a specific make...or series...

Since the only thing that makes a classic valuable is the "perception of value" (as one well-know collector car auction company owner put it to me a couple years ago), and if it's about perception -- more it's about changing perception, not correcting perception.

Of course, I might just be bored and trying to find something to write about!

 

Sammy, Andy and I know each other and he was busting my ba77s. I do agree with what you are saying regarding perception. This entire thread was a joke so everyone is looking for a place to write something. If you are in the NY metro area go out and enjoy the weather.

 

hundred bucks a usa 308gtbi wont be 100K in ten years?

cheers

hf