How will Ferrari 812 GTS hold its value?

the swoops on the side of the car for some reason make it look like it is a bullet twisting pattern. the car looks like it is constantly spiraling to me. definitely not pininfarina.

 

And the GTS is even worse than coupe, that bolt on roof and 488 parts bin. It’s like a Targa to sit in.

 

Can just about pull of the coupe in dark colours which disguise the myriad of lines at the back especially.

 

The only thing that matters regarding depreciation right now is what's going to happen with Corona virus.

Last NA convertible GT blah blah means nothing right now. EU economy might get decimated by this. I'm on an airplane right now, 787, paris to US, thing is so empty.

If it doesn't get better quickly, EU and maybe the whole world is going to get rocked by a 2008-like recession and financial crisis.

 

OT: I think everyone needs to be sane about this. I agree its a concern, but the hype and over the top media reports aren't helpful.

Just be smart about how you approach it people, control what you can. China has seen a dramatic decline in new cases. That is a good sign. They're doing it through social distancing, a proven technique from 1918 influenza. The US and Europe are going to see increases in cases, it's likely big swaths of the population will see exposure at some point. Italy is doing the right thing, short term pain for long term gain.

Utilize best practices folks, I don't need to repeat them here as they are everywhere.

California gov Gavin Newsome is doing an excellent job showing what leadership in a crisis is all about. He's factual, well informed, calm, informative and most importantly positively influencing the things he can influence. I live in the midst of a hot spot (Santa Clara County) and life is pretty much normal, but my family is being careful. We have both kids and elderly parents in our sphere, and I'm much more concerned about our parents secondary and tertiary contacts than I am about contracting it myself.

The financial markets are already looking to 2021. Yes, there is pain atm. It too will pass.

 

I just placed a deposit on a 2019 V12 Lusso, Black on cream with 600miles and all the important options. I agreed 37.5% off the list price on it.

With all this Corona business I am thinking or renegotiating although the price seemed good at the time. Any advice?

If the Lusso is anything to go by these are way off.

I must admit the Corona situation and it’s implications on my business is really making me question the Lusso purchase. I have the option to get my deposit back and might just wait a few months to see what happens, although I love the car.

I am likely going to make a new offer to the dealer but am not sure how aggressive to be as 37.5% off a virtually new car seemed really good.

 

I'm afraid to give advice in this unchartered territory, too much unknown, I just don't know how long for things to blow over. I sold all my stocks over a year ago so sitting with a little cash and might buy something if things get really bad/firesale on an older 12 cylinder car.

 

Couldn’t agree more. A market correction was inevitable and this may be a short, sharp one (not my quote but from an analyst). This is nothing like ‘08 imho. Time will tell but if China’s latest numbers are to believed there is a lot that may go right. Plus...I am convinced it’s everywhere already and the vast majority are asymptomatic or be mild. We really don’t know the denominator here and until we do it’s a little like throwing darts.

 

Not only will there be a recession due to COVID-19 but there will be lost production time which FERRARI will likely not be able to compensate for. Allocations promised will be adjusted downward if the pandemic lasts for a few more months.
This will increase the value of the fewer cars produced when they finally are made


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Short term there will be pain but I agree with you, once things settle down, we could see quick hyper inflation because of the limit of supply and cheap money. Lets see how this plays out... I mean @noone1 I look at your situation and think about the travel ban now as well.. nuts! This will have such a ripple effect into so many things.

 

will you actually buy a car if so?

 

You are lucky you got on that plane. No more rides back from Europe as of today apparently.

 

Well that is an argument I have been making, the used cars will go up in value because of scarcity but on the other hand, the economy is crushed and the demand may drop because you can't drive your car because you are in lockdown. How many people are going to be out shopping for a Ferrari or any car for that matter? Not in Italy now, it's shut down but if that comes to the US, who is going to want a car at all?

 

No amount of realistic supply disruption could help used exotic values right now or in the immediately future. The level of Ferrari supply disruption needed to buoy demand for used prices would imply economic calamity. If Ferrari is shut down long enough to massively undersupply the market, it would likely coincide with demand falling off a cliff as well due to whatever financial crisis is causing the supply drop to begin with.

It's just not likely that the fallout could be so focused on Ferrari while all the customers' finances are unscathed.

I don't think a luxury niche (especially exotic car market) can do anything but go down in value across the board in a bad recessions or crisis like this. Exotic cars during a recession don't get looked at as juicy distressed assets, they get look at as worsening distressed liabilities.

 

US citizens can still come, though not sure how many planes there would be just to take them. Can't believe he did that. Such a dumb move. It will accomplish nothing. The virus is here, people who have it are all over the world and they can still come here. I'd be shocked if the US doesn't have more case than Europe already anyway. We practically aren't even testing people. The US response to the virus has been insane.

 

My thought is to drive it and enjoy it. I’m sure Enzo never said, “I can’t wait for someone to put this car in the garage and never drive it.”

 

You do have a point.
I placed my deposit on an almost new Lusso on the basis they would supply and fit the passenger display by the end of the same week. That was two weeks ago.

I have requested a refund by close of play tomorrow or alternatively confirmation from the dealer that my deposit will be fully refundable until the part is at the dealer and I have given the go ahead to fit it. This only seems fair to me.?

Times are too uncertain and the potential impact on my business from Corona is substantial. This along with the fact that Lusso values are only going down without a recession makes me think to myself, why not wait and see. It isn’t like this is a pista spider or a 812 TDF/GTO.

I know the car is on sale and return so the owner is probably desperate to sell it quickly given what’s happening with the economy.

 

When the crisis is over FERRARI will need to make money ASAP.
Lusso now finished, Portofino not exactly flying off the shelves, Roma an unknown quantity, 812 have more used for sale than any other V12 so that leaves the GTS which from what I have gathered is not numbers limited or time limited so may not be the rare beast some are hoping for.

 

I think the depreciation of any regular production Ferrari is based on where you buy it in the cycle .. The REAL depreciation starts when the new model comes out .. for example if you bought an early F12 and sold it before the 812 came out you would be ok on depreciation .. But once the 812 came out it dropped like a rock ... I think the REAL NET SELLING price of a fairly well equipped 2016 F12 say around 400 list ...that is now say 4 years old is probably around 60% of new cost ..and if it has any miles on it likely closer to 55%..........
...... I had a loaded 2015 F12(list 430) and my net price to me was about 50% of new cost....forget what they are advertised for only worry about your net return...
SO I lost money on every NEW Ferrari I have bought but I buy what I like on the other hand I at least broke even (or made money) on every used Ferrari I have owned....
AS far as a 812 GTS .. I think I guy that gets an early GTS and equips it just right and sells it within the first 500 miles might break even or a little above... ....but once full production hits
depriciation will be as discussed.......
That all being said I am thinking about putting in an order cause what the heck it will be a great car..

 

So I got an allocation for an 812 GTS, the question is by an 812 GTS or keep looking for the perfect F12 TDF? I love the F12 TDF but its twice as expensive and its gonna be hard to find the exact spec I'm looking for...

 

I think the F12tdf still has some room to come down.

The 812GTS is going to hold its value much better than the 812 Superfast and F12berlinetta simply because it is a Spider. A Ferrari V12 Ferrari is a car so many Ferrari enthusiasts have wished for over the years. This will help keep resale values up. I would expect future Ferrari preowned buyers will even consider an 812GTS over an F8 Spider for example especially if they have never owned a V12 Ferrari before.

 

you are not considering price....the difference is way too big...even more so if as you imply GTS will hold value..F8 spider will depreciate...so implied valued difference might well be USD200k in that case....they are not comparable...even vs the SF it would be +100k assuming GTS holds value significantly better

 

IMO the more important aspect that makes a GT Ferrari two seater hold its value better than another model from the same family is the number of units produced. If the 812 GTS will be produced in a bigger number than the 812 Superfast I bet the later will hold its value better than the former.

 

I went to see 812GTS and Roma at the F-dealership yesterday. 812GTS did very little to me, as I find the already complex (and messy) 812SF design gets disturbed. Also looking at the Roma and peaking over my shoulder, the Roma looked far more modern design wise.

Looking outside...I saw my recently acquired FF...and actually very happy how that looks and drives...wouldnt trade FF and F12 I have for any of the newer cars.

So like some comments made here...buy with your hart and if you love the roof off on the 812GTS to hear a screaming V12...buy it, you will be very very happy, because it will be an amazing car. Let the car grow on you, keep it for years, plan long trips and journeys away with it. When you get older it is those vivid memories of memorable trips that are so priceless.

Plus your local dealer will be very happy with your purchase, so everybody happy ;-)

 

Don’t suppose you were able to drive the GTS? Would be great to hear someone’s impressions of how it drives vs the 812 SF, the sound etc

I haven’t seen any motoring journalist reviews either....