is the bubble due to burst? | Page 102 | FerrariChat

is the bubble due to burst?

Discussion in 'Vintage Ferrari Market' started by PFSEX, Jan 18, 2013.

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  1. henryr

    henryr Two Time F1 World Champ
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  2. Mrpbody44

    Mrpbody44 F1 Veteran

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    Markets come and go. Tastes-Fashions and what people do with their time change. Try selling a golf course as a golf course and not a place for townhouses and you will not find much of a market for golf courses as people do not play golf like they did in the 1980's. My point is like other markets the market for high end and middle level Ferrari's will change. The best of the best will do great and the mid level will suffer. This has been happening in most collectibles markets. ( Current exceptions are coins and vintage motorcycles)
     
  3. technom3

    technom3 F1 World Champ
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    agreed

    The best examples always do the Best. but I think you and I have a different vision of that.

    I think the best 1957 bel air will always do well. The best 1965 Shebly GT350 will always do well. Not just Ferraris in general. The best always bring a premium because people who have all the money often want the very best. There are people who will over pay by a serious amount of money for a 1972 monte carlo.... because they want it. When you the collectible you are talking about is just transportation... then it will be valued as such.

    Sames goes with everything and anything.
     
  4. Bradwilliams

    Bradwilliams F1 Veteran
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    Nailed it.
     
  5. Prancing 12

    Prancing 12 F1 Rookie
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    The long way home
    But the best of something, like a 1957 Bel Air, is still relative to the rest of the Bel Airs. In a hot market, if an average Bel Air is, say, $100k, then the 'best' may be $200k. But if the market overall for Bel Airs softens (for whatever reason) and $50k will buy an average car, then there's no way the 'best' one is still worth $200k.

    What's overpaying by a serious amount of money on a 1972 Monte Carlo? 20%? What's that? $5k?

    The problem with the middle market is that the items that occupy it are usually not rare, or at least not hard to come by, so even in the hottest markets, values are kept in check by sheer availability.
     
  6. Platini 289

    Platini 289 Karting

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  7. Bobj

    Bobj Formula Junior

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    Porsche lots all sold very well though - quite a few busting estimates by some margin
     
  8. Juan-Manuel Fantango

    Juan-Manuel Fantango F1 World Champ
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    #2533 Juan-Manuel Fantango, Sep 5, 2016
    Last edited by a moderator: Sep 7, 2017
    I guess we should buy these while they're cheap. I'd actually consider having one if extremely low milage in perfect condition. After all, it was ground breaking. I'll never forget passing one at about 80 in the open pipe 348c all he while with my preconceived prejudices of the typical hybrid owner. Only to have this gentleman, with white beard and english pipe catch me at 80 plus with a big smile and thumbs up! A car guys imagine that.
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  9. henryr

    henryr Two Time F1 World Champ
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    ive been looking at c3 corvettes.... seems like prices have done nada.... as that crowd has aged
     
  10. energy88

    energy88 Two Time F1 World Champ
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    I would expect that off in the future the Holy Grail of electric cars will be the 1990 General Motors EV-1. Only 50 made and all said to be destroyed, but who really knows?

    As for the Honda Insight, there are none listed on Hemmings but a few on Craigs List, some of which appear to have excellent pedigree, are reasonably priced, and affordable by a Millennial young enough to cash in.
     
  11. 166&456

    166&456 Formula 3

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    Not quite, IMHO. Experience based spending is very nice as long as you can pony up the cash. A lease car is easy, but it is many times more expensive than driving a paid-for second hand vehicle or classic, especially if self-maintained. And once the cashflow runs out, it is gone in an instant and you have absolutely nothing to fall back upon.
    People living like that are naïve in my view.

    There is an in-between, and those are the people who pay someone to look after their collection. That way they can collect AND travel the world.

    Also the point on informed society vs uninformed is not clear, is modern society more or less informed? What do I care my neighbors do not know what I drive or have hanging on my wall? They did not know before it became fashionable to be away 50% of the time, so how will that affect asset values?
     
  12. Bradwilliams

    Bradwilliams F1 Veteran
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    I'm with you. Those are good looking cars, I don't care what anybody says. I really like the flared front fenders. Its a different kind of look and is somewhat regal.

    You may be right on that one. But all I'm saying is that every person I know who is in the 30-55 year old age bracket, makes 150- a million or so a year, does not want a toy or value having one. From LA to New york, midwest, south, you name it. And the one or two that want to buy a very high end car want the latest and the greatest (practical). They value having a very nice apartment/condo in a metro city. Travelling as much as they can, and eating at nice restaurants. That's all they care about. And almost all of the people I know who do have a nice car in a big city are looking to get rid of it because it makes no sense to have it there.
     
  13. technom3

    technom3 F1 World Champ
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    Well everything is relative isn't it? 250 GTOs aren't as rare as 330lmbs yet... they remain more valuable.

    And from my experience even the 25 million dollar cars in a down market that are amongst the best... still sometimes only do 20 million... Its all timing and how many buyers.

    Find a real authenticated 57 fuelie convertible... with all documentation... Its not easy and they don't come up for sale often. I have buyers who will pay top market for cars that they want when they want it. They are not stupid so maybe they only pay 180 or 175 (this is all theoretical and using your numbers not stating what the car is truly worth) vs the 200 but again the delta between average and best is still the same if not greater.

    Some cars only come around once in a life time.

    And again regarding the younger people not caring about cars... In my area... and my friends... mostly 30 somethings... we all intend to have good sized car collections many of my friends prefer the new stuff... but when I take the V12 cadillac out... they all flip there lid and talk about the history... and could you imagine buying this car in 1933... when everyone else could barely eat... you decided to buy a v12 5500 pound convertible for 2 thats 17 feet long... As rare as the cars are... as populations increase... there are still plenty and plenty of car guys...

    Use this logic... if you were born say in 1970... you endured 2 decades worth of just crap cars... yet... you still find plenty of 45 year old guys into cars.

    Also, look at what horsepower cars make now... its NUTS. Factory lightweight specials galore! Its crazy! I don't think you are going to find too many people who aren't into cars...

    And Ill leave you with this... ask any young adult if they one the powerball... what would they buy... I garuntee you in the top 3 is a special interest car.
     
  14. Bundy

    Bundy Formula 3

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    Well said, Justin. In 1968, Ehrlich promised that the world was going to run out of food, then it was oil, then "normal" climate, polar bears, residential home buyers, and now car nuts? 😉

    An estimated 75 million people worldwide enter the middle class each year. Once your basic needs are met, you become interested in luxuries. Sure, travel, good food, wine, apartments and homes factor, but so do collectibles such as special cars. There are many more folks who can buy nice cars than ever before. And the interest is still high, even if it cycles (doesn't everything, especially after such a rapid rise?).

    My 19 year old son (who lives in Manhattan) and his buddies flip out over my cars. Interestingly, they like Bentleys as much as Ferraris. Weird to this 48 yo...
     
  15. Bowzer

    Bowzer Formula Junior

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    ............as in everthing else , and as the timeless saying goes, "7 years of bounty and seven years of famine".
     
  16. 5000gt

    5000gt Karting

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    Let's just assume you're right and the market was down 20%.I wouldn't call a 20% drop in any market a demise, maybe a correction.
    The U.S dollar strengthened by 18.7% vs the Euro from Feb 2014 to Feb 2016.

    Maybe this chart will help you see what I am referring to:
    Exchange Rate Average (Euro, US Dollar) - X-Rates

    2014 Feb $1.365784 per 1 Euro
    2016 Feb $1.110112 Per 1 Euro
    $ to Euro change -18.7 %

    In my case I don't see a demise but a devaluation of the Euro.Please feel free to correct me if I am wrong.
     
  17. technom3

    technom3 F1 World Champ
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    The other thing I will say about cars vs travel is...

    People have been traveling and it has always contended with the discretionairy money.

    For many, you can only travel so much or so many times to the same places... In this day in age... in the world of terrorism... traveling abroad is too risky for some (very small percentage I know). For me personally... When I spend money on the vacation... all of my money is gone on the last day... on a special interest car... all of my money is still there (or maybe it costs a little or you make a little) and I can drive down the same road in my own town and have a completely different experience... (a tunnel in a Mazda 3 or BMW 7 is no fun... but a F355 GTS with a tubi... you will go back and forth 4 or 5 times) You can go down that road and have that experience every day... or once a week or once a month... the vacation is just once... Plus... you sell it and get to have another experience. I think if anything many millennials felt the crunch of the housing crisis and are actually value oriented. I think there is value here.

    Also... cars are like golf... when you are young... its for the sport and competition (racing or maybe just showing off) then you hit a spot where its for business connections (commuting... getting kids to school) You get a little older and a little higher up maybe have your own company and then you get to enjoy yourself again because now people are trying to get business contracts with you and who gives a **** about how mulligans or gimmies you took... they want your business... (buy what you like and have fun you work hard you will drive what you like) and then... ... ... then you start getting old... but you can still play... you can still go to the golf club and socialize and stay relevant in business circles or deals, or you can simply get away from the wife of 40 years for a couple of hours... in the golden age of car guys... you can just sit back and look at them collect them and talk about them... its not really about the numbers performance numbers anymore ... you don't want to go 140mph in a car at this point anyways... its all about the stories... "hey... remember Genie Coughman.... she was a looker" Collecting can be as competitive as racing... and lets not even get started on concours crowd... but... in your old age... you can still hang... and you can still kill the young guys on the putting green...
     
  18. technom3

    technom3 F1 World Champ
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    Well I guess we just know two different kinds of people...

    I know guys who are starting to stock pile 1990s cars because the like them first and foremost and they think they might go up... but if they don't... they don't care... they always wanted them and they like them... plus they are cheap at the moment.

    The people I know in LA love cars they all like to have something special... Even its a Range Rover... its still something special... they could ahve bought a suburban... the car thing is in them... Hell as much as Tesla owners drive me INSANE... they are car people... they are interested in cars... Tesla is bringing a whole new market of buyers to cars.

    Sure Chicago isn't a big car town... philly isn't either... but they have some big meets in Carlisle... Manhattan... not that much... But go anywhere else in california... Texas... Arizona... Utah.... Florida... Conneticut... Mass... Idaho... Nevada... Oregon... Washington... plenty and plenty of car collectors and car people. New race tracks being built... bigger and bigger cars and coffee events...

    Most of the guys I know that live in big cities also have another place... and they tend to keep a neat car there.
     
  19. Mrpbody44

    Mrpbody44 F1 Veteran

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    Philly is a huge car town. Very active vintage racing and my friend Fred Simeones collection is amazing. Lots of other collections in the Philly area.
     
  20. Shopcat

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    I think this is right on and I fall into the category... almost, Im in my mid 20's. I dont know anyone else my age interested in older cars like I am. Most just want a nice new luxury car to be comfortable. Even the guys into cars are all into new high end supercars and hypercars, they like a classic when they see one but dont have any interest in actually owning one.
     
  21. Shopcat

    Shopcat Karting

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    Double top perhaps, after seeing things drop 20% demand comes temporarily roaring back looking for these "good deals"?
     
  22. 166&456

    166&456 Formula 3

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    #2547 166&456, Sep 6, 2016
    Last edited: Sep 6, 2016
    Actually for me it has always been like that, too. My family likes it but doesn't understand it, also they are afraid of owning one as it might be troublesome etc. But that same family talked lots about collectively owning a boat and they never did, either. Same with friends, I have a few car nuts in my friend circle and only two of them own classic cars. One more did but he went back to modern classics. A lot of people like them but they are afraid they cannot handle the perceived trouble. If you buy wrong and/or lack the network or skills for servicing, you can be in a world of hurt so that fear is not completely unjustified.
    It takes a certain kind of person, and there are maybe only 1 in a 100 crazy/focused/masochistic enough to actually buy and keep one. Some that do go overboard and buy them by the dozen. Once you're hooked, you're hooked :).
     
  23. Shopcat

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    I was hooked early, bought a rough 68 Camaro as my first car about 8 years ago, still have it too.
     
  24. Caeruleus11

    Caeruleus11 F1 World Champ
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    Its a big world and to borrow a phrase there is "an a** for every seat".

    So you might know people who only like this or that... None of us knows everything nor everyone..

    We just bring our own experiences to the table..

    I remember growing up people were constantly saying sports cars are dead and no one would want them, all the new regulations and enforcement... That was the early 1970s!

    Yes, I think there is a generational shift at work- but each generation has its quirks.

    To paint with a broad brush, the generation that is now just coming on line into the work force (aka having disposable income) was severely disrupted by the financial crisis and is doing things later than prior generations. So for now you see people renting > buying; vacation > fancy car... but over time I suspect this group will "revert to the mean" and we will see people who are interested in these things.... And I think the notion that this generation doesn't like to own things is over simplified. They sure love shoes and sun glasses.
     
  25. Shopcat

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    A huge part of it is student loans. Once I finish paying off mine my discretionary income will more than double as I am trying to get them paid down asap. I have multiple friends in the same position. We are talking thousands of dollars a month to turn the 10 year payment plan into a 3 year payment plan. The scariest part is I had 50% paid by scholarship, I know people with more than 100k in student loans.
     

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