is the bubble due to burst?

So... I haven't seen any articles talking about the sky is falling after monterey. From the little I saw... things looked pretty decent... or more positive. Magazines that love to sell articles haven't published anything to terrible as of yet. Perhaps I am speaking to quickly. Also, the naysayer(s) haven't jumped on here and announced a blood bath or anything like that...

 

I think the market seems healthy. Maybe this is an oversimplification, but it seems that great cars sold for great money, really good cars sold for really good money, mediocre and crap cars either didn't sell or sold below estimates.

 

Four years after this thread was started it's clear a bubble in the vintage car market has not burst and is not going to burst any time soon.

 

Overall, prices on most cars that have benefited from strong appreciation the last several years are down 15% or so from the peak, as I see it.

Bubble not going to burst anytime soon? Dunno, can't read the future, but everything is cyclical.

 

Id agree... but most knew that 911s didnt just triple in value all of a sudden without the help of speculators

 

Yes, when the gov acts in an inflationary way, the currency is debased and hard assets rise. But they only rise as a result of inflation. And other assets, like stocks, should perform even better and provide superior diversification. So even if people accepted your theory, why invest in classic cars (as a purely financial matter)? Unless you're one of the few specialists who is really skilled and unemotional. History seems to show that when things get dicey in the markets and people pull in their horns, things like art, classic cars and the like have the weakest underpinnings.

 

Well yes and no - it depends on which game gets "dicey". If you look at the recent crises, art and cars actually did well and in many ways better than stocks. I think stock markets are more easily manipulated which leads to fiercer swings in valuations. To add to that, there is always the risk of bankruptcy etc which kind of kills the buzz if it happens to you. With art or a car, at least you still have an item to enjoy. In any way classic cars are far more enjoyable than a stock position and I have the feeling I am not alone in thinking that...

 

The trouble with Stocks and most assets is they are pegged to a currency. If they derive most of their earnings from Europe for example and the EU goes down the toilet then the stocks will suffer. The good think about cars, art and gold is they are relatively easy to transport and so if they EU suffers and no-one is buying cars you can ship them to the US, HK, take your pick at the time, who has money, you don't need to bet on a particular nation's economy now.

 

Just saw Phil Bachman's, yellow of course, and I assume the last as he always buys the last...signed intake cover by all the line workers and I'm sure designer, etc. Beautiful......

 

From what I see, some cars are on the move again and there is rationality.

308s and such have gone back to beign 50-60K cars. Testarossa are between 90-1110 for really decent cars.

BBs which are now actual collector cars fell from near 400k to between 250-300k, now they start marching again. Dino prices are going nowhere, like other cars the prices are all bout condition now, so high 2s to high 3s, same with daytonas. Tells me smart buyers are about who actualy understand soemhtign about cars, and they wont sell just based on model ragardless of. Which meas hype and frenzy have left the room, but peopel are buying. Maybe this time its less about investment and peopel have done well enough lately to buy a car to enjoy.

F40s some decent ones go for under 1 mill or you can pay 1.5-1.7 for 2k mile cars that are perfect.

So maybe we see three markets, one for cars with needs defered maintanace etc which imo dont really sell at all now, good well running well cared for useable cars, and a market for perfect exceptional no-low miles 100 point restored etc machines. The price delta between the latter two is probably 20-30%. Youll even see that Delta between a 20k 308 and one with 1500miles. Collectors of which there are fewer now are buying (not for driving) exceptional time warps for one price, and drivers buying good-great cars at another price.

Even in CT land we have seen a number of good cars sell under 300k, and then there are the concors queen pukka pukka restorations with an ask of 500k or more.

As always, afetr the last price run, soem cars have indexed up to a new category(boxers/Cts/aston V8s etc) Others have fallen out or bnevr quite made it, and others liek Dinos and probably many(not all) aircooled porches are going nowhere because they rose so much their prices have nowhere to go.

In general though we have seen the bottom, and cars are selling, so prices are slowly trending up. If youre a seller always good to sell into a moving up market youre a buyer always good to buy at or near the bottom.

Seems like a rational market to me. The missing component then is specualtors.

 

Thanks for the post- I think those are some very good thoughts!

 

Don't understand Porsche market at all ... they made hundreds of thousands of most models. Good cars but not rare.

The 3x8 market is softer, I don't think there is any doubt about that. And it's fall ...

 

Unlikely. Or at least not without a broader range collapse. Jets have a stronger connection to business, where exotic cars are personal.
It's an interesting question though, that I never thought about. Maybe start a poll thread here to see how many f car owners have jets. My hunch is, less than 5%.

 

i would imagine less than 0.5%

 

I think that number might be a little higher if you include things like jet cards- but I do agree it's likely a minority.

I know nothing of the jet market- what happened?

 

Jets-Bitcoins-Safe Banking and FERRARI Value

Without competing with the ''off the road'' theory that is spun weekly in this thread, here is mine : Of the only real Ferrari cars build, there are only 7,500 cars of a total production. All the rest of production cars , including F40/50's etc . These others are new generation modern cars- whatever format you call them, regardless of the model. The purer the breeding, the more collectability. The more bespoke, the rarer. The Ferraris of track action, a small breed of rarity. All in, from the bespoke to the pure bred, from the racing to the winning are ALL lumped together to form 7'500 cars, Queen Marys included. There will be no more. The rest of all Ferraris carry the name, and the up-surge in the speculation market. It's these later cars that long term will bear any revaluations. Comparing ''this threads'' subject: Vintage Ferraris with 308's is another thread. Vintage Ferraris have become Hard-Assets, and there are only 7'500 of them. There is no bubble. These cars are finding there way to people who don't need to sell to invest in Highly Risky Deals, such as Jets, Bitcoins, Facebook and all the utter nonsense that evaporates under the adjective ''Banking Product'', Libor rate or a Hollywood sure thing. Sooner, not later, a Vintage Ferrari will be a required holding even for my fellow Ohioans that collect in the Red. There will always be ''Trends'' , and here in summary is your Bubble. Why is a 330GTC less than a Lusso by 1/3? Why is a Daytona conversion worth more than a real coupe? Is it because the lack of knowledge of which models are very good cars from a market driven by non-users? If, but more likely WHEN Ferrari come onto a higher level of ''treasured'' holdings, the market will steadily march forward. As the cash in banks and currencies become more and more risky to hold, and fixed assets are taxed Cars with the cult following such as Ferrari will continue to weigh in as stellular Fun with a clear investment advantage.

 

Maybe because it’s far better looking, more iconic, and a purer path back to what made Ferrari legendary, the 250 engines and 250gt?

 

The Fed has been propping up asset values with their quantitative easing...over $4 trillion worth of securities purchasing. It's the reason why real estate and stocks have gone up and assets like collectibles as well. Once the Fed actually stops doing that and lets go of their holdings, things should settle back down.

 

I would say that the jet and private plane market suffer from an aging out. Most of the civil aviation guys I know are really old 70+. Most of my friends that own jets have sold their businesses or the businesses have changed so that they no longer need them. Same now for vintage race cars. I see a lot of them for sale due to drivers no longer being fit enough to drive. Your card gets pulled if you have AFIB ect. I do not think the jet or boat market have much effect on the vintage Ferrari market. Different buyers and motivations.

 

is it me or are some cars going back up again?

 

I do not see any

 

I am not 100% sure because i sort of stopped following for a few months..but arent Lussos back up? GTB4 also back to $2.8/$3m, 250 PF coupe going back to $800-$1m?

 

Some are rising, some are falling, and some are staying the same. Its a healthy market now.