Frustrating times! Market seems ripe for buying and no more room in garage!
Its "ripe for buying" in the sense that in these last 18 months there have been a lot of cars put up for sale. Its a great time to grab something nice. On the other hand, prices have doubled over these last five years although they are down from a year ago. It must be that prices have gone high enough that the owners who have listed their cars want the money instead of the car. A mini-glut.
Good quality cars are good value right now. Poor quality cars are still over priced I think. I miss the $20k project cars from 5 years ago. I remember a rusty GT4 that ran and came with a full set of OEM replacement panels priced at $17k. Woulda, coulda, shoulda. 208s were available in Europe for $25k. I miss those too. Lack of garage space cost me one deal I seriously regret (and I'm not one who normally regrets anything). Storage is cheap, if you find the right car. I've learned my lesson there. Regards David
I spent two and a half years searching for the "right" car from 2011-2014, tracking prices nationally the whole time. At the end of 2013 was when I started seeing good quality examples start to get snapped up very quickly from the time they were offered. By early 2014, I'd see ads for $35-45k cars, and I'd call the day the ads went live only to find out I was the tenth caller and it was sold. I talked a seller down to $39k from a listed $47k, and told my car buddies I was certain I'd crushed it, even though that was top of the market then. One year later, it was worth 60k. Last summer, my insurance agreed to a value of $125k pending photos of my completed restoration, and I turned down over $100k from a collector. This year, I'd wager even a thoroughly-restored car short of true Platinum status would get $75-85k. Prices for good-to-excellent "drivers" are down 30% since last summer. I think what happened was, consumers came out of the recession around 2011, and strongly by 2013. By that time, there was a lot of pent up demand from the generation that grew up on Magnum PI, and they finally had the discretionary funds to fulfill their childhood dreams. Good cars started getting snapped up, causing prices to double in short order. Dealers and auction houses took notice of the pop and started offering premium cars at the same sales as seven- and eight-figure icons, and a select few 308s garnered well over $100-150k. Suddenly, everyone with a jalopy 308 decided to test the market and cash in, flooding consumers with options and reining in prices on the middle 50% of the condition bell curve. For the worst cars, you still can't find $15k projects anymore, as the salvage parts for the new collector class have become too valuable. For a true concours platinum car, distinguished reputable sellers will still get solid six-figure prices. But for the bulk of driver cars in good repair, the bubble has burst since last summer.
I think you pretty much nailed it. I’ve researched and double checked. I have one of the lowest priced carb GTSs on the market FS (aside from dealers). And it’s been slow, and barely any activity. And this is a car in the high 40k/low 50K range. Two years ago, I’d have had a one day sale at $60K easy Oh well. I think we’ll always see a disparity of REALLY good cars commanding lots of money, and everything else will eventually slough off to the side of mediocrity and settle into a +- $10K spread.
Everyone also needs to take into account that summers over .. Excellent time for moving 4wheel-drive's and snowmobiles.
Good Cliff Notes synopsis! For those who haven't seen it, there is a good nearly hourly play-by-play thread in the Vintage section known as the notorious "Bubble Thread:" http://www.ferrarichat.com/forum/threads/is-the-bubble-due-to-burst.395802/
A very interesting read. I bought a little earlier than you (March 2013) so missed the drama you describe. At the time I was shopping, the problem I had to deal with was lack of cars in the marketplace. It didn't seem like there were many people buying either. I wonder about all the cars that are on the market now. Are they listed by long-term owners who have decided to sell? Short-term speculators? Will all the current “inventory” slowly be acquired by enthusiasts who will never let go again? Or will there continue to be a continued transaction churn? It is difficult to sell an exotic car due to the limited number of shoppers at any particular moment. Based on my experience in late 2012 and early 2013, where the landscape was bare, my belief is that a new crew of long-term owners will slowly absorb the inventory and, like early 2013, it will again be difficult to find a 308. Interesting. I hadn't seen this thread before. An argument can be made that the 308 is a economic microcosm within the overall vintage car market. The question always is, are 308s valued appropriately by enthusiasts relative to the value of other antique sportscars such as Corvette, Porsche or Jaguar?
and with non collector cars coming down in price like 360s, alternatives increase at a price point that making choices becomes more difficult
The market is soft if you compare it to the bubble that came and popped a few years back, but the overall trend is up. I bought an '80 308 before the bubble for cheap. I could sell it today for what I paid for it in an instant. Just addressing a few things and I could easily move it for $10K more than I paid. It's not economically feasible to do a concours resto... yet. I'm hoping for slow, steady growth in value. No more bubbles! lol
It's my fault, I bought a 308 last year and due to my financial karma prices had to either plateau or tank But really, that's something for my heirs to worry about.
