Hey all, After my updated 360 pricing thread I got several requests for a 430 thread, so here it is. Once again, methodology involved isolating the most important variables that could play into the F430's pricing and then using regression analysis to compute how much they factor in. The data is below. As always, please remember that this formula only accounts for asking prices, which can often be quite different from selling prices. Number of vehicles: 178 Average price: $176,147.60 Average mileage: 5,372 Formula: - start at $218,972.10. - subtract: --------- $29,388.20 for a 2008. --------- $44,082.30 for a 2007. --------- $58,776.40 for a 2006. --------- $73,470.50 for a 2005. - subtract $1.54 per mile. - add $21,767.71 for a Spider. - add $4,088.09 for F1. - add $1,957.63 for a factory dealer. Not many surprises here. I included "red" and "Challenge wheels" in the formula originally, but their premium ended up making up less than half of one percent of the vehicle's value, so I didn't include them. I did not include '09s, as there are just three on AutoTrader and thus were skewing the data. As with the 360 and 355 thread, here are the cars which are most above or below the formula and the percentage they differ from the formula: Best buys: 1. 2007 Ferrari F430 Spider - $165,900 (-15.29%) 2. 2006 Ferrari F430 Spider - $159,000 (-12.68%) 3. 2006 Ferrari F430 - $137,000 (-9.94%) Sale-proof prices: 1. 2007 Ferrari F430 Spider - $239,000 (+20.92%) 2. 2005 Ferrari F430 - $159,500 (+20.91%) 3. 2005 Ferrari F430 - $169,000 (+20.45%) Graphs below display some interesting parts of data. I personally was shocked by the mileage graph - drive your cars, people! (at $1.56 per mile of course ) Feel free to here or privately with questions or comments! By the way - after doing the 360 and 355, unfortunately the 430 is the last Ferrari I can do the analysis for. There are simply too few examples of other models for sale. This process takes hours, so that's no skin off my back, but for those of you looking for 348 or V12 data, I'm sorry! In a few more months I will no doubt re-compute 360 and 430 data to continue to reflect current market conditions. Image Unavailable, Please Login Image Unavailable, Please Login Image Unavailable, Please Login Image Unavailable, Please Login
Wow, great work. You are a credit to this community. It would be great to see such an analysis with actual selling prices.
Keep in mind (and Doug acknowledges this) these are asking prices. There is a substantial delta to actual sales prices. Doug: good job again.
That would put my 2005 at about 119K asking. Sounds just about right to me although I have no intention selling anyway. Dave
Your formula seems to be right on. The percentage difference between asking and selling would be the interesting figure.
This is spot on based on my recent purchase. Well done! Now can you do this analysis for some craps odds
Thanks for the kind words, all. As for the difference between asking and selling... man!! We need to get this data somehow! Now that would make for an interesting thread.
05s got killed late in 2008 along with evrything else, but I haven't seen any meaningful change since then. Newer ones drop more of course as the price gap from year to year will compress over time. Dave
my guess is that selling prices might be 10, 15% below asking prices. someone asking 200 might get 170.
The 140k asking price is from the formula, the 147k is what I paid almost a year ago including one year warranty, I realize one is asking price and the other was selling price but assuming a 10% difference between asking and selling, mine would be worth about 125k today. Would I sell it for that? of course not.
+1 I think bids are much much lower then the current ask prices, would be nice to see what motivated sellers are letting the cars go at. Great analysis!
Purchased spider in the fall.I estimate selling prices between 8% - 15% off asking depending on color, condition and I guess ultimate need to sell.
according to the formula my car comes in at 187K. I am waiting for the shipper to deliver a 2008 red coupe with 2900 miles and 6 speed manual purchased from a factory dealer (and as an added bonus 16 months remaining on a factory warranty). I paid 167K. I feel good about the deal based upon this post. How rare is this car based upon the bottom graphs...based on the fact that only 12% were made with a 6 speed I would say under 5% were built like mine? Am I close?
I was curious (I love this stuff, what can I say?!) so I ran the numbers. If the current 178 car sample on AutoTrader is anything to go by, exactly 5.06% were coupes with a manual. However, I'd expect as the cars get newer that number will decrease, and indeed there is just one 2008 manual coupe on AutoTrader at the moment. Glad everyone is getting something out of the formula. People keep throwing out numbers for selling off asking; I think ranges are correct as one straight percentage won't do the specific car (and asking price) justice. 8-15% sounds reasonable to me, but considering I just purchased my first car which I've paid for with my own money, I'm not as "in the know" as some of you!
I don't think many 08 coupes were sold in the US period. They started selling scuds then and I'm sure the profit margin on those was much greater. They sure made plenty of scuds. Dave
And plenty of 16Ms too! Indeed, you can see on my first-page graph that the number of '08s on the market is smaller than the number of '07s. The number of '09s is so small I didn't include it. But there are a lot of Scuds and 16Ms.
