UPDATED 360 Pricing Analysis - February 17, 2010

Hey all,

As I continue to get positive feedback on my first 360 pricing analysis thread which I made about three months ago - and because it keeps getting bumped to the top of the forum with new questions or comments - I decided to use a rare block of free time today to make a new one reflecting up-to-date market conditions.

Using regression analysis, I've taken data from 183 different Ferrari 360s on AutoTrader and the features which we'd expect to affect their value. The data is below. Please remember that this formula only accounts for asking prices, which can often be quite different from selling prices.

Number of vehicles: 183
Average price: $106,614
Average mileage: 13,217 (median is 11,000)

Formula:
- start at $141,328.30.
- subtract:
------- $24,371.60 for a 2005.
------- $29,245.92 for a 2004.
------- $34,120.24 for a 2003.
------- $38,994.56 for a 2002.
------- $43,868.88 for a 2001.
------- $48,743.20 for a 2000.
------- $53,617.52 for a 1999.
- subtract $0.80 per mile.
- add $11,233.14 for a Spider.
- subtract $762.56 for an F1 transmission.
- add $9,732.29 for Rosso Corsa.
- add $476.36 for a Challenge Grille.
- add $4,426.57 for shields. (?!)
- add $2,450.32 for a factory dealer.

It appears F1s have closed the gap on manuals. You'll remember that last time, F1 was a $2,300+ deduction versus manual; now it's only $762.56 which is almost meaningless when it comes to the price of these cars. For whatever reason, dealers are now pricing F1s lower (or manuals higher). I'd like to think it's due to my last pricing analysis, but in reality I think supply and demand have more do with it. Red still holds a crazy premium and shields hold an oddly high one too. About 70% of 360s have shields.

The rest is as expected. But just for fun, here's the three "best buys" based on this analysis, and the three "you've got to be dreaming" sale-proof prices. I've also included the percentage each vehicle is above or below where the formula predicts they'll be.

Best buys:
1. 2003 Ferrari 360 Spider - $85,000 (-24.91%)
2. 2004 Ferrari 360 Spider - $95,551 (-19.97%)
3. 2000 Ferrari 360 Modena - $71,899 (-19.70%)

Sale-proof prices:
1. 2005 Ferrari 360 Spider - $189,900 (+39.87%)
2. 2004 Ferrari 360 Spider - $169,500 (+35.17%)
3. 2001 Ferrari 360 Spider - $139,500 (+27.35%)

I've included some graphs this time to display some of the more interesting bits of data. These come from Microsoft Excel, on which I did much of this analysis. Feel free to respond here or privately with questions or comments!

I've already got all the data on the 355, by the way - I hope to get that up tonight. Not sure if I'll do 430 but if there's demand and I have time, I can probably crank it out.
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Thanks all! Glad you guys could get some enjoyment/knowledge out of my side project! Compiling the data is a laborious process which takes forever but it's fun to see the end product.

In statistics, the p-value is a number that determines significance. Any p-value under 0.05 means that the variable plays a part in price determination with 95% certainty - the statistical threshold for significance. In the case of the shields, the p-value was 0.016 - meaning that they play a causal role in determining the price with 99.984% certainty. I was shocked! But this is true over a sample of 184 cars. I wish I had an explanation!

I wish I knew, but there are very few cars available with a factory sunroof. That said, the one on AutoTrader (and there's just one) that has a factory sunroof is priced higher than a non-sunroof car should be (about 3%, according to the formula - works out to just under $3k). So at least someone out there thinks it does!

 

I agree. The shields premium is statistically curious. But as I mentioned above, they do form a causal relationship with prices for whatever reason. Perhaps dealers specifically go after cars with shields. Perhaps owners who specified shields kept the mileage off their cars, or were more likely to get a red car, or more likely to get a convertible. Whatever the reasoning, I agree that I would expect buyers not to take this guide as the bible - it is not - and apply a little common sense. No doubt, shields can be purchased and mounted for less than the value they add to the car.

Oddly, I just posted the data for the 355 and shields hold a similar premium - this time at ~91% significance, which is still enough to identify a causal relationship.

Thanks for the kind words.

 

Definitely possible - good theory. And since my analysis didn't take exhausts or seats (or modular wheels) into account, it certainly could be that the shield premium is really a catch-all for shields plus other options.