Here is my own thought on 458 Italia base MSRP...

I think you are on to something.

 

Iceman,
Your logic makes good sense. However, this time around Ferrari has a new entry level car the 'California' with a base price of $190k+. That may elevate the base price of the 458 a bit. I still don't think they will price it over $250K.

 

Well boys, not to go on a political rant. If the current administration's policies continue, the dollar won't be worth much of anything in a year's time, so expect to pay in U.S. Dollars (or Pesos) well above 300K.

 

+1

 

+10

 

i wasn't gonna be so dramatic but yeah. op made a good stab at it but you really gotta take into account the exchange rates when you're talking in USD.

 

Remember that Ferrari can adjust the allocation from country to country too. If one economy is poor, they can shift more cars to another provided there is demand. It's hard to believe there won't be world-wide demand for this for some time to come.

 

$269k base price in US. $300k with popular options. $50k-$100k mark-up for the first 18 months.

 

Yep. Agreed that's just about right on. And they already know they can sell every one they make for the next 5 years.

 

Quite logical. I'm predicting base MSRP in the neighborhood of $210k to $230k.

 

-11

I don't know why you said "not to go on a political rant...." if you were going to go on a political rant.

 

What world-wide demand? Demand where? Are the Chinese going to buy all these cars? The whole world is in the worst recession since 1930. The US will come out first anyway, and there is an "L" shaped recovery when it comes. All this is pretty much known at this point.

This is not 2005.

Besides, this is a bread and butter car. They have to sell lots to guys that are not that recession-proof. These are the same people dumping the F450's now, which is why those prices are crashing.

The early ones will go for a premium, sure, but listed base price is nowhere near $300K.

 

Sorry but you can not ignore the Scuderia pricing. When the 430 was released the base price was roughly 10% less than the CS. Scuderias are roughly $300K+. Deduct 10% and you have a base price of $270K for the 458. Besides, I've had 3 dealers tell me they think the 458 is a $300+ car. The 458 won't come to the US until 4th quarter of 2010. By then the Calironia GT will be $260K.

 

Agreed. Even with a recovery, many of the financing methods used to purchase these types of cars has gone

 

There's some rather uninformed reasoning going on here. I think we should also stay clear of one's political agenda and look at the facts.

The world has some 7 Billion people on it. It's typical of Americans to think that 90% of the world revolves around them. But, in fact, we live in a GLOBAL MARKET.

If you don't think more cars are going to Russia, the middle east and asia now than they did when the 360 was introduced 10 years ago, you're just not paying attention.

The entire 458 production will be something like 3500 cars a year. The US typically gets about 40% of that -- or about 1600 cars per year. If Ferrari decides its better off taking 10% of the production (say, 400 cars) of those to other markets, we go down by 1/4 of whats available. That keeps prices high in the US and puts 400 cars in other markets where they can sell them for either a better rate of exchange or more money.

400 cars. Let me repeat... 400 cars. You don't think Ferrari could find a market for 400 cars in better and more profitable markets around the world than the US?

Do you really think there aren't 1600 people in the entire US right now with enough cash and the desire to buy one -- even at the bottom? Hell, I know 10 myself.

As to the US coming out first, many countries -- like Korea -- have economies that are actually GROWING. Not everyone is in recession and not everyone is following the US. The propaganda often doesn't match the facts.

 

+1

and in a lot of these markets luxury goods are a much bigger deal than in europe or the us.

 

Well, trying to predict a new Ferrari's sales doing a topdown demand analysis starting with 7 billion people in the world appears pretty uninformed. And unsophisticated. Do you think that's how a luxury automobile's marketing department does it?

Russia? Look at the GDP falling off the table this year. I attach the graph for you here. They bought cars yesterday, but won't tomorrow. What they bought 10 years ago, or over the last 10 years is no longer very relevant.

Korea, uh, no, they aren't growing. See their GDP graph also. How many Ferrari's is that?

For a guy who call's other's uninformed you seem to be full of unfounded assertions, and few correct facts.

You are still living in the pre-economic collapse world. Things have changed, and for a long, long time. And if you know 10 people who want one, so what?
Image Unavailable, Please Login
Image Unavailable, Please Login

 

Maybe you want to move your posts in the political section because, from a discussion about what the price of Italia will be, you've seem to taken a rather aggressive and nasty tack. I thought we were talking about the potential MSRP and dealer marks for this car when it hits the market in the next year.

But, as long as you brought it up.

My point about 7 Billion people is the typical US belief of most people that our 300 million people make up 90% of the world economy. The world economy is far greater and larger than most people in the US understand or appreciate. When you said "where are these cars going to be sold?", you seem to imply the traditional misunderstanding of many that the US is so powerful, so important, so critical to what happens in the world that every other market is meaningless or second rate. That's simply not true. Shifting 400 cars is a piece of cake in a global economy.

Secondly, your chart is meaningless to this discussion when we are talking about such a small market. We are talking about the total sales of 3500 cars in one year in the entire world, not the price of a bushel of corn. They are two different things entirely.

You cannot look at the GDP of millions of people and make a claim that every single person or group is affected in exactly the same way. This particular market is way too small to make such a direct comparison. It's like making an assumption that because the NYSE is down, every single company on the exchange is losing money. That, of course, is simply not the case.

IF we were referring to general goods and services when looking at GDP growth, I would agree with you. When we are talking about the sales forcasts for an item like this and in such small numbers, your statistics are completely useless as they are too broad.

I don't disagree that the world economy has been contracting. What I disagree with is that it has much of any influence when it comes to the price and availablility of the 458 when it hits the WORLD market.

I repeat again what I have said and asked... Do you not think there is a market for 3500 cars in the world and 3500 people who cannot afford to pay cash for a 458 without blinking an eye? Please answer: yes or no.

If your answer is "no", then you are correct. But, if your answer is "yes" (as I would say) it is therefore easy for Ferrari to shift sales from one region to another if it's more profitable for them to do so.

That's all I said. It still seems reasonable to me.

I have made my claim and have stuck to it. I have no idea why this struck such a powerful cord with you.

So, can we get please get back to the discussion now?

 

My dealer said they did not have pricing but that they thought it would be BASE priced around the current Scuderia. They are thinking $280k then $50k worth of options

 

WTF????

 

Fact is that Ferrari are laying off half of their factory staff this fall. Its also a fact that for the first time they are taking trade ins at the factory so they can flog their new cars. They are in big trouble.