Car restoration will be a thing of the past?!

[WILLIAM H]

I do agree most new cars are disposable and if they are not the issue w modern supercars is that manufacturing replacement parts is extremely expensive

Restoring a 50s Ferrari requires shaping an aluminum body, leather interior and maybe using a forge to create some new parts

Rebuilding say a 458 requires lots of carbin fiber, exotic materials and the computers could be the most complicated bcus modern cars are quickly turning into near robots.

I think I'll be keeping all my old cars

[Mitch Alsup]

Originally Posted by zorro

-On those basis I would say one could make a strong argument that the restoration as a business days are numbered.

In 20 (or even 40) years, the restoration guys will still be restoring 64.5 Mustangs, SuperBirds, 442s, original 911s, etc.

[zorro]

Originally Posted by Mitch Alsup

In 20 (or even 40) years, the restoration guys will still be restoring 64.5 Mustangs, SuperBirds, 442s, original 911s, etc.

All the old cars are sooo much easier to restore......Including the old exotics.......

[Mitch Alsup]

Originally Posted by zorro

All the old cars are sooo much easier to restore......Including the old exotics.......

But your point was that the business was going away. No, it is not going away, and will continue to restore the same kinds of cars it is currently restoring. Heck, Jay Leno is restoring 1910-stuff, right down to taking 3D images and remolding metal parts.

Your rant is that the modern cars won't get restored. Some will, most will not; when it comes down to craftsman ingenuity; and the current wave of geeks gets into the rstoratio business, they will figure out how to re-ECU engine controllers, transmission controllers,... after that, its simply mechanices and electrics. Hard, sure; that is why there are 600,000 quality car repair places and only 600 quality restoration places.

[zorro]

Originally Posted by Mitch Alsup

But your point was that the business was going away. No, it is not going away, and will continue to restore the same kinds of cars it is currently restoring. Heck, Jay Leno is restoring 1910-stuff, right down to taking 3D images and remolding metal parts.

Your rant is that the modern cars won't get restored. Some will, most will not; when it comes down to craftsman ingenuity; and the current wave of geeks gets into the rstoratio business, they will figure out how to re-ECU engine controllers, transmission controllers,... after that, its simply mechanices and electrics. Hard, sure; that is why there are 600,000 quality car repair places and only 600 quality restoration places.

Point taken. Basically the cream will rise to the top, but I truly believe at the very least the restoration industry will be reduced to a fraction of what it is currently. What they'll be restoring in the future is up for grabs for anyone to speculate. I just have observations based on what the car industry and society seem to be doing. Cheers..

[SrfCity]

Originally Posted by zorro

Point taken. Basically the cream will rise to the top, but I truly believe at the very least the restoration industry will be reduced to a fraction of what it is currently. What they'll be restoring in the future is up for grabs for anyone to speculate. I just have observations based on what the car industry and society seem to be doing. Cheers..

That would imply that the collector car industry will die too? If what is currently happening is any indication, that isn't the case.

[PDX_214]

As a member of the younger generation (20s) involved in the classic exotic car world, I'll just say this: The passion is there and there are younger guys that are getting deeply involved and learning that have the skills. If there is a demand, there will be someone, somewhere to provide the service.

[kerrari]

I don't see it happening as the current generation don't 'tinker' with their cars now. They just buy what they want and that's it. I think there may be a market for classic cars in the future, but they will all be professionally maintainedand due to the shrinking number of skilled people, it will become limited to the top end of the market.

In regard to the electronics, yes they can be re-manufactured IF there is enough demand, but no way can you get a one-off. No amount of money (as I understand it) can get you a computer chip that is no longer on someone's inventory list.

[PV Dirk]

I thought late 70s and early 80's cars would never be restored. Too much plastic in my mind, it would crack and be throw away. Now they have plastic welding. Just about anything can be repaired. Technology will evolve. And I disagree that young people don't work on cars. There are a lot of cars being pulled down and put back together.

There is however the issue that modern cars don't need to be worked on like the old ones do. I just replaced a set of points with my Dad. I did that a lot in my teen years. They don't exist anymore. Kids today are better with the computers. So many of them massage the computers on their cars and I wouldn't know where to start.

I think people who do restorations are artists first, who love cars. We'll never run out of artists. The gaps will be filled.

[zorro]

It's a great thought and I hope you're right....

[kerrari]

Originally Posted by PV Dirk

I thought late 70s and early 80's cars would never be restored. Too much plastic in my mind, it would crack and be throw away. Now they have plastic welding. Just about anything can be repaired. Technology will evolve. And I disagree that young people don't work on cars. There are a lot of cars being pulled down and put back together.

There is however the issue that modern cars don't need to be worked on like the old ones do. I just replaced a set of points with my Dad. I did that a lot in my teen years. They don't exist anymore. Kids today are better with the computers. So many of them massage the computers on their cars and I wouldn't know where to start.

I think people who do restorations are artists first, who love cars. We'll never run out of artists. The gaps will be filled.

Yeah but 'massaging' the computers is just swapping one chip for another - no one actually MAKES a chip is where I see the problem... Chips CAN'T be homemade.

[Mitch Alsup]

Originally Posted by kerrari

Chips CAN'T be homemade.

You might have noticed teh return of several old computer games (PacMan, Gallega,...) These are the result of a person programming an FPGA to be a 6502 computer (and the rest fo the printed circuit board). So, nobody makes a 6502 anymore, but a geek programmed another part to do exactly the same job (and it runs all the old PacMan codes.)

There is hope, yet, for old ECUs.

[Bullfighter]

Originally Posted by zorro

Hello everyone,

I just wanted to share my point of view about the business of restoring cars. I feel that eventually there will be no more car restorations, or at least very little. Here is why.

-In 20 years all the really great craftsman that are capable of breathtaking correct restorative work will be gone, retired, or otherwise.

-I don't believe that ANY of the new cars will be candidates for restoration when they are 40 years old. Simply because they are so complex that restoring them will be financially over the top, and who knows what kinds of relays, modules, circuit boards, sensors and God knows what else you'll be scrambling to find. I love the 458 Italia, but can you imagine restoring one in 40 years! At least the older cars required only skill, elbow grease, parts (If not available could be machined) to restore.

-We are already living in aa disposable world. People these days just move on to the next model, arrange the payments or trade up and off they go. Years ago when you stepped up to purchase an exotic it was a keeper, you bought your dream car. No one was thinking upgrading in a year or sometimes less.

-On those basis I would say one could make a strong argument that the restoration as a business days are numbered.

Those of you out there that have fully restored cars already are lucky. Treat them like gold because they are among the last of a dying breed.

Gentleman.....Just my two cents and comments welcome.

Cheers,

Francesco

I agree with most of this. I think there will always be a high end restoration market for classic (pre-1975) cars.

On the disposable point I agree completely. Cars are being built with technology that no one will want in a few years' time. I suppose someone could restore an iDrive system in a BMW, or the crappy early paddle shifters in 355s or 360s, but the smart money will either buy something newer and better or go classic.

Originally Posted by Designstar

Francesco...

While the points you made about today's electronics driven car are valid, one key facotor that you failed to mention in favor of the restoration industry remaining viable is the free maket. If there is a market for classic cars of the future, z06 corvettes, Audi R8, GTR and the 458 to name a few, there will be people who will meet that market need and demand by supplying the parts and services to keep them running...

As far as the skill set needed to do the restorations, leather work, body work, assembly, etc, again, as long as there is a market for those services, people will apply their passion and skills to meeting that need and the industry will survive.

One last point is that people will pay for what they are emotionally attached to and for each generation there is a set of cars that they identify with. The ten year olds of today with posters of the 458 on their walls right now are going to be looking for one in 30 years because they love them now.

As long as the passion for cars is handed down from one generation to another, the next generation will be looking for the cars they dreamed about as kids and teenagers when they get old enough to afford them. If they have the funds to pay, the market will provide.

As someone posted, the bodywork on something like a Merc 300SL or Ferrari Daytona is nothing like what it would take to restore a 458, McLaren, Gallardo, etc. Yes, they still use leather inside, but beyond that there's not much to restore outside of the surgically clean factories where they produce this stuff.

Also, much as like the GTR, R8, 458 et al, the odds are long that anyone would consider them collectibles any more than a Dodge Stealth, Honda NSX or Ferrari 348 will ever be seriously collected.

Originally Posted by kerrari

I don't see it happening as the current generation don't 'tinker' with their cars now. They just buy what they want and that's it. I think there may be a market for classic cars in the future, but they will all be professionally maintainedand due to the shrinking number of skilled people, it will become limited to the top end of the market.

In regard to the electronics, yes they can be re-manufactured IF there is enough demand, but no way can you get a one-off. No amount of money (as I understand it) can get you a computer chip that is no longer on someone's inventory list.

I agree, who really wants to tinker with the paddle gearbox in a 458?

Cars are black boxes now. They work well, but once they fail it's time to scrap them and move on.

[Jenni]

My two senses..
I am a young lady apprenticing under Dave Helms, my father who has been in the car industry long before I was a thought, and I have to say my generation is turning out to be a little disappointing. iPhones and video games is what it has come to... What happened to a good ol’ game of kick the ball after school/work??
Old and vintage cars, made to work, not completely dependent on computers and electronics. Scuderia Rampante, our family Ferrari shop, we will keep restorations going as I am learning the ins and outs of these Ferraris. Keeping it alive in Colorado. Very interesting thread

[bobzdar]

Originally Posted by sammyb

People have said this for years, most notably on the C4 Corvette -- critics said that despite the great (for the time) performance, nobody would have them in 30 years due to the electronics.

The "complex" digital dashboard can be ordered via many parts supplier. The '85's "complex" new TPI injection components are also available everywhere. What is complex and expensive to reproduce now is child's play in 30 years. In actuality, the cost of reproducing parts continues to go down with time and advancements.

And just like in the 1950s, where the cost of re-chroming and rebuilding a nailhead makes restoring a '56 Buick Special sedan impractical, there will be plenty of cars (like a BMW 750Li) which due to multiple expensive low-production electronic motors, electronics and other tech-gizmos, will also be passed-over for restoration of more desirable and ultimately valuable vehicles...in BMW's case M3s and in Buick's case the '53 Skylark or '54-'55 Century convertibles.

This is exactly true. What seems complex today will be child's play in 30 years. Just like what must have seemed like an impossibly complex engine in a 250TR in the '50's now seems extremely simple compared to even a basic honda vtec inline 4. I could replace the whole motronic unit in my 355 with a vastly superior off the shelf unit for a fraction of the cost of replacing or repairing the stock unit if it ever dies with minimal effort (just tracing wiring). Such is progress.

Besides that, things are starting to be so well documented (witness tomyang.net) that hopefully there will be electronic information for anyone to reference on all of these cars in 30 years so that the knowledge of how to restore one doesn't die with the people that performed the restorations.

[PV Dirk]

Originally Posted by Jenni

My two senses..
I am a young lady apprenticing under Dave Helms, my father who has been in the car industry long before I was a thought, and I have to say my generation is turning out to be a little disappointing. iPhones and video games is what it has come to... What happened to a good ol’ game of kick the ball after school/work??
Old and vintage cars, made to work, not completely dependent on computers and electronics. Scuderia Rampante, our family Ferrari shop, we will keep restorations going as I am learning the ins and outs of these Ferraris. Keeping it alive in Colorado. Very interesting thread

I agree and disagree Jenni,

I think you are proof that there are some out there who maintain these interests. If the last generation was as great as we make them out to be there would many thousands of Dave Helms in this country. There are a number of great Ferrari people out there but not at every corner. In my travels I do meet young people in many places who have the shine in the eye and are excited about life. The world has never been 100% super productive or artistic people.

The interests of todays youth is more in computers, that is what is going on right now. In past generations the old folks grumbled about no one using horses and wasting all their time on these new fangled cars. The world does change but there are still people who use horses much as they have in the past, for work and play. You can still find someone to put shoes on your horse but the talented people probably don't make as much money and are harder to find but they are out there.

I don't think restoration will ever go away. As long as there is a young person who grows up with a dream car, there will be someone to help that person acquire it and keep it running in the future.

Back to the OP a bit more. I foresee in the future, one off fabrication will become much easier and cost effective. Anyone else read the story about the programmable grains of sand that via computer input create a shape on their own? It's crude today but some success has been made.

If the world doesn't fall apart I think the future will be an exciting place for our hobby.

[AMA328]

Originally Posted by Bullfighter

...

Cars are black boxes now. They work well, but once they fail it's time to scrap them and move on.

Yup. Many cars now exceed human capabilities. The usable diff between a high end vs. generic car continues diminish and will do more so in the future. Factor in replacement technologies, such as electric power and you have your answer.

Just not too practical any more...

[TheMayor]

Originally Posted by Mitch Alsup

But your point was that the business was going away. No, it is not going away, and will continue to restore the same kinds of cars it is currently restoring. Heck, Jay Leno is restoring 1910-stuff, right down to taking 3D images and remolding metal parts.

Your rant is that the modern cars won't get restored. Some will, most will not; when it comes down to craftsman ingenuity; and the current wave of geeks gets into the rstoratio business, they will figure out how to re-ECU engine controllers, transmission controllers,... after that, its simply mechanices and electrics. Hard, sure; that is why there are 600,000 quality car repair places and only 600 quality restoration places.

This is 100% correct. If a car is worth restoring, it will be restored. You don't see a restoration business for Yugo's because it's too expensive for what it's worth.

This idea that cars are all "black boxes" and therefore no one will want to do it is non-sense. If there's a buck in it or love in it, someone will make a replacement.

[Bullfighter]

Originally Posted by PV Dirk

... I don't think restoration will ever go away. As long as there is a young person who grows up with a dream car, there will be someone to help that person acquire it and keep it running in the future...

The problem is, the concept of a dream car has changed. For most consumers, and not just in cars, products come and go very quickly, not just because modern cars are mostly about electronics that rapidly become obsolete but because we have a culture that views stuff as disposable. No one wants an iPhone 3GS anymore, and pretty soon my iPhone 4S will be replaced and looked down upon by my younger colleagues. (I'm always one model behind them...) This changes how we think of things.

You don't spend years lusting after a Porsche 996 or Ferrari 360 because compared to what came next they're terribly dated. When the 997 or F430 came out, they were immediately better, and the 991 and 458 better again. That doesn't mean a 996 or 360 aren't good cars, they're basically just old cars at this point, with lesser brakes, worse airbags, dated instrumentation and sat nav, obsolete automated gearboxes, etc. Could someone restore all that crap? Yes. Would they want to? Maybe after restoring their Palm Vx.

Even on this board, people talk about getting into Ferraris with something cheap like a 360 so they can trade up to "something better". I've never heard that kind of comment about E-Types, Daytonas, Miuras, etc.

So, I think restoration will always be with us, but only for classic stuff where the financial side makes sense. And I think the idea of a dream car in 2012 is a lot different than what it was in the '60s, when changes in successive models of cars were trivial.

[TheMayor]

Actually Bullfighter, I agree with you. No one bought an E-type Jag for the radio it had. You bought it despite the radio it had.

But, you forget one thing: Cars evolve and will probably evolve at an even faster pace. So, what you view as obsolete today will be quaint in the year 2025.

Look at how many today love to play 80's video games. Nostalgia will always be there in every generation.

It's quite possible that with government requirements and hybrid technology, we may be in a golden age of Super cars. We don't know just like those in the 60's had no idea they were in the golden age of muscle cars.

Stuff changes. When it does, people always look to the past.